🎯 Return to Glory: The Case for Breece Hall

Before we dive into Breece Hall’s 2025 outlook, I feel like it’s important that we have a little refresher on who Hall is as a player.

Since 2011, there have been just three running backs to record 90+ rushing attempts and 75+ targets in at least two of their first three seasons in the league, per Pro Football Reference. 

Those running backs are:

• Christian McCaffrey

• Alvin Kamara

• Breece Hall 

McCaffrey and Kamara actually achieved this feat in each of their first three seasons in the league, while Hall accomplished it in just two of three. However, that’s only because his 2022 season was cut short by a Week 7 ACL tear, putting an end to his electric rookie campaign. Hall had already amassed 76 rushing attempts and 31 targets through six full games, meaning he was certainly on pace to eclipse the aforementioned 90+ attempts / 75+ targets mark had his season not been lost to injury.

Hall’s underlying metrics reflect his elite receiving skillset, as he ranks 2nd among running backs in Yards Per Route Run since 2022 (1.79), trailing only Christian McCaffrey (1.87), per Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints.

And that receiving ability is critical for league-winning seasons from running backs. Since 2011, 7 running backs have recorded a season with at least 25.0 PPR fantasy points per game and at least 12 games played, per Pro Football Reference. None of those 7 seasons occurred on fewer than 80 targets. While Breece has yet to have one of those legendary seasons, he has the underlying receiving profile to get there - he finished 1st among running backs in targets in 2023 (89) and 3rd in 2024 (74) despite battling a knee injury, per FantasyPoints. More on that later.

The 36th overall draft pick in 2022, he’s a freak athlete, too. His Relative Athletic Score of 9.96 ranks 7th among 1614 running backs from 1987 to 2022. Through three seasons, Hall’s athleticism has shined as he’s displayed game-breaking ability both on the ground and through the air. Here’s how he has fared in terms of PPR Fantasy Points Per Game:

2022 - 16.44 PPR FPPG (RB08) - explosive rookie season cut short by torn ACL

2023 - 17.09 PPR FPPG (RB06) - shined despite playing on atrocious Zach Wilson-led offense

2024 - 15.06 PPR FPPG (RB17) - played through knee injury down the stretch

I think it’s worth talking more about his 2024 campaign, as that seems to be the impetus for Hall’s current late-3rd round Average Draft Position (36th overall, RB13).

What Went Wrong In 2024?

Coming off the Jets’ Week 12 bye, Hall popped up on the injury report with a left knee injury (the same knee as his ACL tear in 2022). The injury was reported as a hyperextension/MCL issue,  and Hall ended up playing through it in Week 13 before missing Week 14. Despite rumors that the Jets could shut Hall down for the remainder of their lost season, Hall pushed through the final four games and his fantasy output suffered as a result.

Weeks 1-12 (pre-knee injury):

Snap Share: 77.5% (4th among RBs, per FantasyPoints) 

Route Share: 57.3% (4th)

Target Share: 15.2% (3rd)

PPR FPPG: 16.8 (10th)

Weeks 13-18 (post-knee injury):

Snap Share: 62.1% (14th)

Route Share: 43.7% (22nd)

Target Share: 8.3% (29th)

PPR FPPG: 11.7 (28th)

It’s clear that Hall was not himself. The Jets knew it, and scaled back his usage. 

Recently, Hall himself said that his 2024 knee injury was pretty serious, and that if he could go back he “probably would’ve taken a little bit more time off,” but he had felt like the team needed him out there and he wanted to play. Regarding his health entering the 2025 season, he added: “God willing, I was able to heal up and be healthy and everything…I feel great now, so that’s in the past. That was that, and now I’m just ready to keep moving forward.”

It sure sounds like Hall has a clean bill of health entering the season. Additionally, he’s received a coaching upgrade.

The Jets Will Have An Improved Run Scheme

Last season, the Jets ranked dead last in rushing attempts with 363, and 29th in rush rate with 34.2%, per FantasyPoints. Consequently, despite Hall’s great utilization profile pre-injury, he was earning a large share of a rather small pie. 

Entering 2025, however, New York brings in two key pieces from the Lions’ staff: Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn as Head Coach and Passing Game Coordinator Tanner Engstrand as Offensive Coordinator. 

Per FantasyPoints, Detroit finished 2nd in the league in rush attempts (519) and 4th in rush rate (46.4%) last season. Additionally, the Lions targeted their backfield in the passing game at the 3rd-highest rate in the league (19.6%). Engstrand has proven his ability to capitalize on the abilities of explosive receiving backs, as evidenced by Jahmyr Gibbs’ 21.4 PPR FPPG (RB2) finish last season. 

That’s a far cry from Hall’s 2023-2024 OC Nathaniel Hackett, who famously admitted at the end of the 2023 season, “I don’t think I was ready for [Breece Hall] to be as productive as he was in the pass game” adding that he didn’t recognize Hall’s pass-catching ability until Week 8 of the ‘23 season.

Fox Sports 1’s Mark Schlereth recently said on his podcast that, as he was talking to Aaron Rodgers about how abysmal the Jets’ run scheme was last season, “Aaron went on for about a 25-minute diatribe on just their run game.” Breece Hall should be the direct beneficiary of New York’s new scheme via increased volume and efficiency.

Additionally, HC Aaron Glenn has made it clear that Breece is their guy. Following trade rumors surrounding Hall early this offseason, Hall said that Glenn called him and told him “Breece, I don’t want to trade you. I want you to be here, you’re going to be here. You’re our running back.” 

Now, this offseason, Glenn has also made comments alluding to getting running backs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis involved. Specifically, he said, “I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible”. He went on to add that it could be a 1-2-3 punch at running back and that if the Jets can get them all on the field at one time, they’ll do that. 

Fantasy drafters seem to have taken this quote to heart, and I think this committee talk is being overblown for a couple reasons. 

Number one, this could be classic coachspeak, a new head coach coming in and talking up his entire running back room. Plus, it’s worth noting that in that same interview, Glenn went on to say “I think every player is going to be happy with the way that we go about this offense, and I think [Breece] is going to be one of them.”

Which brings me to point number two. When the chips are down, the Jets are going to play the best players that give them the best chance to win. Breece Hall, when healthy, is the best running back in this room. Could he cede some goal line work to Braelon Allen? Potentially. Could Isaiah Davis carve out a role for himself in this backfield? Sure. While I’m not convinced that Allen and Davis will eat into Hall’s workload in a meaningful way, we did see the Lions deploy a two-back rotation with David Montgomery and Jahymr Gibbs last season. New York’s new coaching staff could be looking to replicate that committee approach, and I’d be remiss not to acknowledge that possibility.

However, those valuable targets out of the Jets’ backfield this season should belong entirely to Hall, given he’s not only the Jets’ best pass-catching back, but one of the premiere receiving backs in the league. 

Even better, his new quarterback loves checking the ball down.

Opportunity Knocks With Justin Fields

Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Justin Fields had the highest Checkdown Throw Percentage with 14.9%. And that wasn’t merely a product of Pittsburgh’s scheme: in 2023, with Chicago, Fields finished 4th among 40 qualifiers with a Checkdown Throw Percentage of 12.7%. For context, Aaron Rodgers finished 13th last season in Checkdown Throw Percentage with 9.1%, per FantasyPoints. 

Additionally, in his 2025 Late Round Draft Guide, JJ Zachariason did a study on running backs paired with mobile quarterbacks. He found that early-round running backs with mobile quarterbacks (RB1-RB18 ADP, Hall sits in this bucket with an RB13 ADP) have actually seen 10% target shares or better at a higher rate than early-round running backs with immobile quarterbacks. Running backs in Breece’s bucket also performed well versus ADP expectation.

When discussing his first impressions of his new running back, Justin Fields noted that “Breece is a ball player, for sure. Of course everybody knows he can run, but what kind of surprised me is his natural hands when I first started throwing with him. He has natural hands, like a receiver, and he's really just an all-around back. Definitely glad to have him on my team.”

With Davante Adams gone and the Jets lacking receiving weapons behind wide receiver Garrett Wilson, they’ll need to utilize Hall as a pass-catching threat. They’re trotting out Josh Reynolds as their WR2…there is serious opportunity here.

In addition to targeting Hall out of the backfield, Fields’ legs should help open up running lanes as defenses are forced to respect his mobility. Hall recently noted on the Get Got Podcast that  “having a running quarterback, we’re always looking to make big plays…it takes some pressure off of me. It creates an extra run lane, makes them play a step slower, so it’s been good.”

Plus, the Jets’ offensive line is trending up. Last season, their unit finished 12th in PFF Run Block Grade (67.4), and they added OT Armand Membou with the 7th overall pick in this year’s draft. Membou ranked 6th among 348 qualifying CFB tackles last year with an 87.6 Run Block Grade, and is in line for an immediate role alongside four returning starters. 

League-Winning Upside In Round Three

Bringing it all together, Breece Hall is an elite three-down running back who has proven his ability to produce for fantasy in poor offensive environments. He enters 2025, his contract season, with an improved run scheme under new coaching, a mobile quarterback that will open up run lanes and likes to check the ball down, weak target competition behind Garrett Wilson, and an upgraded offensive line. Last season, you had to spend a top five pick to draft him in fantasy. In 2025, he goes at the end of the third round, despite being at full health in an improved situation. 

While I understand that Hall did not finish last season strongly, he may lose some work to the Jets’ other backs, and this offense is not projected to score a ton of points, those fears are baked into his ADP. We don’t typically have access to a game-breaking running back profile that can legitimately win leagues at the end of the third round. For that reason, I’m willing to bet on Breece Hall’s talent and let the chips fall where they may.