🎯 It's Different This Time: Draft Olave

Look, I get it. We all have Chris Olave fatigue. Every season, we’re told he’s quietly one of the best receivers in the NFL, yet he consistently underperforms on weak offenses with middling quarterback play.

Seemingly an Advanced Metrics Merchant, Olave has never scored over 24.0 PPR fantasy points in a game. He’s been “next up” since he entered the league in 2022, and the “elite” potential has simply never converted to anything other than good, not great fantasy production. In fact, Olave has never finished as a top 15 wide receiver on the season and has yet to put up a top five week at the position in 39 career games.

Yet, every season, I’ve bought into the promise of his potential, thinking it would be “different this time around”. I was taking him in the early-3rd round last season and the late-2nd in 2023, banking on the promising start to his NFL career turning into a 2nd and then 3rd-year breakout. I got burned every time. If there is someone who should outright refuse to target Chris Olave in 2025 fantasy drafts, it’s me.

Yet…here I am, ready to get hurt again. Because it is different this time around. Unlike previous seasons, you don’t need to spend premium draft capital to take a shot on a true Olave breakout in 2025. Per FantasyPros ADP, he is going at the very end of the 6th round as the WR34 off the board. 

Stick with me here - I’m going to tell you why, despite his disappointing fantasy seasons to date, Chris Olave is worth targeting in fantasy drafts at his 2025 price.

Advanced Metrics Profile

You’re probably rolling your eyes right now. Yes, seconds after referring to Chris Olave as an “Advanced Metrics Merchant”, I’m going to kick off my Olave pitch with his…advanced metrics profile. 

Just remember that I’m on your side. I was extremely reluctant to buy back into Olave, but the case is pretty compelling.

Here’s how Olave fared among wide receivers in his 6 healthy weeks last season (Weeks 1-5, 8, per FantasyPoints):

Targets Per Route Run - 29th (0.23)

Yards Per Route Run - 21st (2.22)

1st Downs Per Route Run - 12th (0.12) - A metric created by FantasyPoints that is similar to YPRR but is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting next year’s fantasy points.

PFF Receiving Grade - 7th (85.1)

ESPN Analytics WR Score - t-3rd (72.0) - Uses player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route a pass catcher runs and scores his performance in three phases of the game - Open, Catch, and YAC.

2024 PPR Fantasy Points Per Game - WR33 (12.5)

2025 Average Draft Position - WR34 (70th overall)

No, the production wasn’t there last season. There’s no getting around that. 

But Matt Harmon, who specializes in wide receiver analysis at Reception Perception, noted that since entering the league in 2022, Olave is 10th in first downs per route run, 11th in yards per route run, and 13th in targets per route run among all wide receivers with 500+ routes.

Additionally, in Olave’s Reception Perception profile, Harmon scored his 2024 season in the 87th percentile in Success Rate vs. Man Coverage (76.3%), which is the most important metric he looks at. Per his methodology, receivers who are north of 70.0% in that statistic are really good future bets. To be considered in the “elite” tier of Reception Perception wide receivers, a player would need to exceed a 75% success rate vs. man coverage (again, Olave’s was 76.3%), 80% vs. zone (Olave’s was 82.2%, 81st percentile), and 80% success rate vs. press (Olave just missed the cut with 77.1%, which was still good enough for 82nd percentile). 

Harmon describes Olave as “underutilized and underrated” as well as “one of the best route runners in the NFL”, and ranked him 9th in his “WRs under age 25”, ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, and some other really talented wideouts.

And while the strong profile has not yet translated to elite fantasy production, Olave has been consistently good. He is one of just 9 first-round wide receivers since 2000 to exceed 100 targets and 1000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons in the league. Here is that list:

Chris Olave

Ja’Marr Chase

Justin Jefferson

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham Jr.

Garrett Wilson

A.J. Green

Jaylen Waddle

Amari Cooper

That’s pretty good company.

Long story short, Olave’s elite underlying metrics certainly tell a different story from his fantasy performance through three seasons. However, there’s reason to believe his luck could turn in 2025.

Saints’ New-Look Offense

This offseason, the Saints brought in Eagles’ Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore as Head Coach. Moore, who will take over play-calling duties, has led fast-paced offenses along each of his stops in the NFL. Per Pat Thorman of Establish The Run, here’s where his units have ranked in situation-neutral pace:

Cowboys - 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th

Chargers - 4th

Eagles - 8th, despite a league-high 50% run rate

We’re likely going to get a ton of play volume from this Saints team under Moore, especially when you consider they’ll frequently be playing from behind in negative gamescripts. PFF graded their defense as the 3rd-worst in the league last season, and Vegas has the Saints’ win total line at just 5.5 games. And hey, garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.

Plus, New Orleans plays in a dome in a division whose defenses all graded out as bottom half units last season, with the Panthers finishing dead last, per PFF. 

Therefore, the Saints should run a high volume of pass plays. But who’s going to be throwing the ball to Chris Olave?

Quarterback Situation

2nd-round pick Tyler Shough appears slated for the starting gig, but he’ll have to prove in camp that he’s deserving of the nod over 2024 5th-rounder Spencer Rattler. And while Shough profiles more as a career backup in the NFL, I think he’s more than capable of getting the ball to Chris Olave. 

At 6’5, he has the size to make throws over the middle of the field, and because he offers limited mobility, he will look to get the ball out rather than scramble. PFF’s player comp for Shough is Chad Henne, which, in short, is good enough. After all, Olave has proven the ability to produce with weak quarterback play - he recorded season-highs in targets (14), receptions (8, tied with Week 4), and yards (107) in Week 8 last season with a combination of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener under center. 

Helping Shough’s case is that the Saints have the 3rd-easiest schedule for quarterbacks, per ESPN’s Mike Clay. And while I don’t expect Shough to be a star or even a star-ter long-term at the NFL level, he is an unknown. I want to lean into that “mystery box” aspect a bit given that it never quite seemed like Chris Olave had great chemistry with Derek Carr. What if Shough loves targeting Olave out of the gate? And what if Shough is actually…kinda good? There’s a wide range of outcomes in terms of quarterback play, but I want to embrace that variance given Olave’s role as the clear alpha in this offense.

Olave’s 2025 Role

Outside of an aging Alvin Kamara and deep threat Rashid Shaheed, the Saints don’t have much in the way of playmakers behind Chris Olave. He should get absolutely peppered with targets in an offense that, as mentioned above, should be forced into pass-heavy gamescripts. 

And new HC Kellen Moore is a big fan of Olave’s. In early May, he noted that “Chris is a phenomenal player. He has had a huge impact on this team. He’s going to have a huge impact (again).” Regarding Olave’s draft test with the Cowboys back in 2022, Moore noted at OTAs that "He was, if not the best, one of the top guys we've ever had." He added, “he’s showing it out there right now - his ability to line up in a number of different spots, which will allow us to move him around.”

That bodes well for Olave, who stands to benefit from increased utilization in the slot. Last season, playing in then-Eagles’ OC Kellen Moore’s scheme, DeVonta Smith logged career-highs in slot rate (55.7%), yards per route run (2.03), and most importantly, fantasy points per game (15.3), per PFF. Olave, who profiles similarly to Smith, could see bumps in both target share and efficiency as Moore moves him around the field, scheming him open as the Saints’ primary offensive chess piece. 

Concerning Concussion History

In order for Olave to become an elite fantasy producer, he needs to be on the field. And it’s no surprise that after four concussions in just three NFL seasons, fantasy managers are weary of his ability to do that. That’s not even mentioning the concussion Olave suffered in 2020 at Ohio State. That’s five concussions in as many seasons, two of which occurred in 2024. Who’s to say what would happen if Olave suffered another one in 2025?

While I don’t have the answer to that, we don’t have to look far to find an example of a player who suffered an unusually high number of concussions to kick off their professional career. Olave’s own teammate Brandin Cooks suffered five concussions in his first six seasons, two of which occurred in 2019. 

Entering the 2020 season, a lot of the concern around Cooks was similar to what you hear surrounding Olave now. However, Cooks went on to have the second-best season of his career in PPR FPPG (15.5), and hasn’t suffered another concussion since. 

My point is simply that while Olave may potentially miss more time than a player without his concussion history were he to suffer another one, we take the risk whenever we draft any player that they could suffer a long-term injury on the field. At the end of the 6th-round of fantasy drafts, that fear is more than priced in.

Rare 6th-Round Profile

In summary, we rarely get access to a profile like Chris Olave’s at the end of the 6th round of fantasy drafts. While he has been an Advanced Metrics Merchant to date, there’s reason to believe that 2025 is the year he converts his elite potential into league-winning production. Between an offensive-minded head coach in Kellen Moore, a potential bump in volume and efficiency via slot utilization, and frequent negative gamescripts in what should be a faster-paced offense, it is different this time with Chris Olave.