🏈 Confession: I’m Fading Chuba Hubbard in 2025

Palms are sweaty, knees weak, and arms are heavy as I write this: I am not drafting Chuba Hubbard at his current cost (ADP of 46th overall, RB18 in PPR leagues, per FantasyPros).

I know, I know. He was AWESOME last year! He was the classic late-round running back breakout that endears fantasy managers to that player until the end of time. Trust me, I get it (shoutout James Robinson). 

In short, here’s why: While Chuba is a great runner, he’s a bad pass-catcher, and that limits his ceiling in fantasy football.

Poor Receiving Profile = Capped Ceiling

Last season, Hubbard logged a Yards Per Route Run of 0.51, which ranked 51st among 52 qualifying running backs, per PFF. His PFF Receiving Grade of 39.5 was equally bad, also ranking 2nd-worst in that group. Additionally, Hubbard finished dead last among 34 qualifying running backs in Receiving EPA (Expected Points Added) Per Target, which quantifies the net value a receiver adds on targets by translating yards gained into points scored, per Next Gen Stats.

Per JJ Zachariason’s Late Round Draft Guide, there have been 19 running backs since 2014 who were drafted between RB15 and RB30 (Chuba is RB18) and had a Yards Per Route Run rate less than 0.70 in the prior season (Chuba’s was 0.51), minimum 8 games played and 100 routes run. Just 5 of those 19 players (26.3%) ended up exceeding ADP expectation the next season, and none (0.0%) did it by more than 2.6 PPR points per game.

Zachariason adds on The Late Round Podcast that since 2014, we haven’t seen a running back with a Yards Per Route Run as low as Hubbard’s see a high target share the following season, and that cohort hasn’t given us any league-winning seasons, either.

Those aren’t great odds for Chuba!

2024 was the Perfect Storm

Additionally, Hubbard was forced into an insane three-down workhorse role last season due to the lack of talent and availability behind him on the depth chart. Miles Sanders, an already subpar backup who logged just 3.73 yards per carry and finished 40th among 68 qualified running backs in PFF Grade when healthy (68.0,) was lost for the season to a high ankle sprain in Week 10. 

Jonathon Brooks, the talented rookie 2nd-rounder who was coming off an ACL tear, was slowly brought on until tragically re-tearing his right ACL in Week 14. 

For the stretch run, Carolina had to piece together an RB room behind Hubbard consisting of 2022 UDFA Raheem Blackshear and career journeyman Mike Boone. The result was an other-worldly 88.4% snap share for Chuba (t-1st among running backs) from Weeks 12-16 before he missed the final two games with a calf strain.

Don’t get me wrong, Hubbard capitalized on his opportunity with an impressive RB13 (16.3 PPR Fantasy Points Per Game) performance on the season. Plus, his advanced rushing metrics were awesome - he’s genuinely a very good runner. He proved to be worthy of the starting running back job, and the Panthers rewarded him with a 4-year deal worth $33.2 million. 

However, I don’t think it was or is Carolina’s intent to have the entire running back workload fall solely on Hubbard’s shoulders, especially when it comes to pass-down work. And given that he’s likely to be rushing volume-dependent based on what we know about his pass-catching profile, I’m concerned he’s being drafted based on his 2024 workload rather than his 2025 outlook.

An Eyebrow-Raising Week 13 

The Panthers-Bucs game in Week 13, while just one data point, supports this belief. Mind you, this game occurred after Chuba’s breakout - he had already clearly separated himself from Miles Sanders. Hubbard was coming off 21.2, 25.9, and 15.0 PPR-point performances in the 3 games leading up to Week 13, per FantasyPoints.

In Week 13, Jonathon Brooks, after weeks of being eased into practice off injury, saw a 20.6% snap share in his second game as an NFL running back. This was a step up from Brooks’ 8.6% snap share in his Week 12 pro debut as the Panthers continued easing him into live game reps. 

Here’s how the workload split between Brooks and Hubbard looked in Week 13:

Hubbard: 12 carries 

Brooks: 6 carries

Hubbard: 0 targets

Brooks: 3 targets

Chuba scored just 3.3 PPR fantasy points that week, his lowest output since Week 1.

Brooks re-tore his ACL the next week, so we don’t have a larger sample to go off. He’ll unfortunately miss the entire 2025 season, but the point I’m making is not actually about Brooks himself. 

I find it pretty telling that once the Panthers had a viable running back available behind Hubbard, they immediately deployed him in a sizable complementary role rather than relegating him to pure backup duties. Similarly, given the significant investments the Panthers made in their running back room this offseason, I’m led to believe they are intent on taking some of the load off Hubbard in 2025, especially in the passing game.

Free Agency Acquisition: Rico Dowdle

Let’s start with Rico Dowdle, who signed a 1-year, $2.75 million contract with Carolina in free agency. While Dowdle is admittedly Just A Guy, he is a viable RB2 - Rico’s 73.9 PFF Grade was good for 21st among 68 qualifying running backs last season. Upon signing Dowdle, Panthers’ General Manager Dan Morgan said, per The Coachspeak Index: 

“We’re super excited about Rico Dowdle. I think he’s gonna bring a physical run style similar to Chuba Hubbard.”...“We’re excited about both those guys, kind of a 1-2 punch. They both can catch the ball out of the backfield, they can both pass protect, and they’re both obviously really good runners that we’re excited about.”

During training camp on July 26th, Head Coach Dave Canales was asked how Dowdle diversifies the offense, to which he responded, per The Coachspeak Index:

“It’s just about consistency. It’s about when Chuba needs to come out, that we just continue on the same path, we can call the same plays. I think Rico is really special out of the backfield, as well, as a receiver and an amazing pass-protector. So, he really brings a lot to what we can do. I’m really glad we’ve got Rico here. It allows us to have that consistency we’re looking for.”

Finally, Canales noted on July 30th, per The Coachspeak Index:

“I was super excited to get Rico Dowdle. He can pass-protect really well and catch the ball out of the backfield. I was ecstatic to get him, I couldn’t have been more excited.”

Clearly, the Panthers’ staff feel they can deploy Dowdle in a similar manner to Hubbard, and have made it a point to mention his pass-catching ability multiple times.

114th Overall Pick: Trevor Etienne

After adding Dowdle in Free Agency, the Panthers spent the 12th pick of the 4th round of the NFL Draft on running back Trevor Etienne. PFF’s NFL Draft Guide compared Etienne to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, noting:

“Etienne won’t be an every-down back like his older brother, but he has elite burst and quickness for the position. He could thrive as a complementary option in a zone scheme and showed at the Senior Bowl that he may have more receiving upside in the NFL than he did in college.” 

Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals echoes the sentiment that Etienne could earn a valuable pass-catching role for Carolina:

“He’s probably a capable receiving back, and that’s arguably a big part of what the team would’ve seen in him when they gave him much better draft capital than it seems he’s been getting credit for…going as the 9th RB overall in this class was above the consensus expectation, and that’s a thing that does speak particularly favorably about the Panthers potentially having real plans for Etienne.”

Plus, it’s worth noting that Canales likes to give rookies opportunities early on. Back in February, he said, per The Coachspeak Index:

“I am for playing rookies right away. The only way to get that experience is to be out there, is to live it, is to feel the accountability from their teammates and have them elevate their urgency in an appropriate way.”

I’m Fading Chuba at his ADP

So while the Panthers have invested in Hubbard as their lead back, they’ve also invested in the running back room around him. Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne are far more deserving of touches than last year’s haphazard corps of Miles Sanders, Raheem Blackshear, and Mike Boone. 

And given that since 2014, 73.7% of running backs fitting Hubbard’s pass-catching profile fail to exceed ADP expectation the following season, what exactly is the bet with Hubbard?

Because he strikes me as a volume-based running back on a team that, while improved, isn’t going to score a ton of touchdowns - Carolina has the 9th-lowest implied team points per game (21.6), per Adam Levitan of Establish The Run.

Without that pass-catching upside, Hubbard looks to me like a potential “small hit, big miss” player, where he’s unlikely to win you your league, but could very easily become the silent killer of your fantasy team. 

While Chuba is a talented runner of the football and a great fantasy football breakout story, at the end of the 4th round, the price is too rich for my blood.