🎯 The Undervalued TE Advanced Metrics Love

The Undervalued TE Advanced Metrics Love

Two weeks ago, I decided to pull together all of my favorite advanced receiving metrics into one spreadsheet. My plan was to identify undervalued and overvalued players heading into the 2025 fantasy football season. I wrote about the surprising standout at the wide receiver position last week, and today I’ll be discussing the tight end whose analytical profile took me by surprise. 

Dalton Kincaid.

Coming into the offseason, I was pretty lukewarm, if not bearish, on Kincaid’s prospects in Year 3. Last season, I was fully in on him. Ascending 1st-round talent in the Bills’ offense following an impressive rookie season? Yes, please. 

However, Kincaid failed to live up to expectations. And like many fantasy managers, I had sort of given up on his breakout potential entering 2025. In my mind, he had every opportunity to produce last season and didn’t come through. “Maybe he’s just not that good” I thought.

The advanced metrics tell a much different story.

After digging into the numbers, I can confidently say I am back in on Dalton Kincaid in 2025. And while we don’t play in Points Per Target leagues, there is additional context surrounding both Kincaid’s missed opportunities and injury status that indicate his disappointing 2024 season was more noise than signal.

Dalton Kincaid Is A Target Earner

To start things off, I’ll let the data do the talking. Here’s how Kincaid’s 2024 season scored in several advanced metrics, as well as where he landed among 41 qualifying tight ends:

Targets Per Route Run: (0.28, 1st)

Weighted Targets Per Route Run: (0.70, 1st) - TPRR but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

Yards Per Route Run: (1.76, 12th)

1st Downs Per Route Run: (0.09, 14th) - A metric created by FantasyPoints that is similar to YPRR but is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting next year’s fantasy points.

WOPR: (40%, 9th) - Weighted Opportunity Rating, created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a player’s air yards share and target share.

Threat Rate: (29%, 5th) - Targets per aimed pass on passing play snaps, per FantasyPoints.

1st Read %: (21%, 9th) - Percentage of team’s first read and designed targets, per FantasyPoints.

PFF Grade: (76.6, 6th) - A play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats.

Yards After Catch Per Reception: (6.36, 4th)

Yards After Contact Per Reception: (2.61, 5th)

Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception: (0.18, 7th)

PPR Fantasy Points Per Game: (7.75, TE19)

…wait, what? TE19? What the heck happened?

Kincaid Should See Positive Regression In 2025

In short, Kincaid was on the wrong side of variance.

Based on his usage, Kincaid’s Expected PPR Fantasy Points Per Game was 9.87 (TE11), per FantasyPoints. However, he led all 41 qualifying tight ends in Fantasy Points Below Expectation Per Game with -2.12, resulting in his 7.75 PPR FPPG, TE19 finish. Your initial reaction may be that Kincaid simply didn’t make the most of his opportunities and left significant meat on the bone. Here’s why that is not the case.

Driving Kincaid’s drastic underperformance was his poor Catch Rate of 62%, 40th among 41 qualifiers. I know everyone is conjuring up the image of Kincaid’s 4th down drop in the AFC Championship game, but his low Catch Rate was not due to drops - Kincaid had just 2 drops on the season for a 4.2% Drop Rate per PFF, better than average at the position (4.5%). For added context, Kincaid logged an 82% Catch Rate as a rookie, 3rd among 43 qualifying tight ends, per Fantasy Points. His hands were not the issue.

Rather, it was his Catchable Target Rate of 69% holding him back - that rate ranked dead last among 41 qualifying tight ends last season. As a rookie, that figure stood at 89.9%, which was 5th-highest among 43 qualifiers. Simply put, Allen missed Kincaid at an uncharacteristically high rate last season.

This was especially true on deep targets of 20+ air yards, and Kincaid led all 34 qualifying tight ends in Deep Target Rate (12.0%) per Next Gen Stats. Kincaid caught just 2 of his 10 deep targets last season, and 0 of those incompletions were drops. On the contrary, Josh Allen continually missed Kincaid deep. When targeting Kincaid 20+ yards downfield, Allen had a passer rating of 49.6, per PFF. Allen’s overall passer rating on deep balls, however, was 76.1, and he also posted a 94.8 Deep Throw Grade, 4th among 38 qualifying QBs, per PFF. It’s clear that while Josh Allen certainly has the deep ball in his bag, he and Kincaid could not get on the same page downfield last season.

I actually went through an NFL Pro film playlist of each of these downfield throws to Kincaid to figure out what on earth happened. Some of these were just straight up bad throws by Allen. A few were miscommunications or throws into coverage. Regardless, I didn’t leave my mini film sesh thinking Kincaid was at fault. Rather, it just kind of felt like Allen was forcing it on some of those plays and, at times, just outright missed the throw. 

If Allen and Kincaid had connected on just a few more of those downfield targets, we could be having a much different conversation about the young tight end entering year three. 

If there’s a silver lining, however, it’s that Kincaid’s position-leading deep target rate of 12.0% was a significant jump from the 4.4% he logged as a rookie, which was 16th among 29 qualifiers in 2023. Those downfield targets brought Kincaid’s Average Depth Of Target up from his rookie mark of 5.80 to 8.32 in year two, per FantasyPoints. While it didn’t convert to fantasy production, Kincaid’s ability to earn downfield targets is bullish for his ceiling in fantasy. And if Josh Allen can simply be the deep passer we know him to be, it should mean good things for the duo in 2025.

On intermediate throws of 10-19 yards downfield, it was more of the same. Kincaid brought in 6 of his 16 intermediate targets, just a 37.5% rate, 39th among 40 qualifying tight ends. Once again, Kincaid had 0 drops on these targets. Allen’s passer rating on these intermediate throws to Kincaid was 84.6 versus his overall intermediate throw passer rating of 124.4, per PFF.

I dove back into the film on these intermediate throws and came away feeling even stronger about this whole Kincaid pitch. Allen just BARELY missed Kincaid on so many throws, it was actually such a frustrating watch.

Here’s why I’m not worried about some sort of underlying chemistry issue between Allen and Kincaid (data per PFF):

Kincaid’s Deep Targets (20+ yards downfield):

2024: 10 targets, 2 receptions (20.0%), 49.6 passer rating

2023: 7 targets, 3 receptions (42.9%), 89.9 passer rating

Kincaid’s Intermediate Targets (10-19 yards downfield):

2024: 16 targets, 6 receptions (37.5%), 84.6 passer rating

2023: 15 targets, 10 receptions (66.7%), 126.3 passer rating

In short, we didn’t see this level of miscommunication between Allen and Kincaid in 2023. Consequently, I’m willing to bet that last year’s disconnect was the result of a flukey season rather than irreparably poor chemistry between the two.

Plus, per Syracuse dot com, “Kincaid has spent time with quarterback Josh Allen this summer. The two throw together, hang out, and talk football and golf. Kincaid said another part of his game that he expects to make a jump in 2025 is his chemistry with Allen.”

Sounds an awful lot like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp’s “Breakfast Club” during the 2021 season when Kupp went on to win the Triple Crown, just saying…

Kincaid Had An Injury-Riddled 2024

In addition to being on the wrong side of variance, injuries were likely a contributing factor to Kincaid’s struggles last season. Here’s a breakdown of his 2024 injuries:

• Collarbone injury in Week 6, didn’t miss any time

• Sprained PCL (knee) injury in Week 10, missed 3 games

• Morel-Lavallee Lesion (other knee) in Week 16, didn’t miss any time 

Many players would’ve missed significant time with these injuries. Kincaid played through them, and it’s not far-fetched to think they played a large role in his underperformance. Everyone from Kincaid’s teammates to Bills brass seem to agree.

Following the AFC Championship Game, Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News posted: “Dawson Knox said that Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee — ‘It’s insane what he’s played through’”. 

Per ESPN, Josh Allen also weighed in on Kincaid’s health: “I know he’s been battling throughout the entire year, bumps and bruises and probably games that he shouldn’t have played he was in, but he’s a tough sucker, and I got nothing but love for him, how he’s approached this year. He’s going to be so much better next year. Let his body heal up, and I’m going to be better, better for him, and I can promise you that.”

Bills GM Brandon Beane agreed when he spoke at the NFL Combine, per the Niagara Gazette: “Dalton's a heck of a player. Dalton fought through a tough year, injury-wise, could have easily shut it down. Had plenty of reasons to shut it down. … Teams would shut guys down, put them on IR, and we had lots of discussions. But Dalton wanted to play, wanted to fight through it.”

He added, “Dalton is a big part of our plans going forward...He's been a big part of our success. People game plan for him. He's part of the everybody eats, so good chance for him to get away, get his body healed up, and we'll be excited to get him back in the spring.”

Per The Athletic, Beane noted more recently at Bills Minicamp that Kincaid’s 2024 season was “really more of an injury thing and nothing more than that.” He went on to say, “He has definitely added strength and bulk…He’s in a stronger position than he was at this time a year ago. You can see the confidence in the knee”, per KSL Sports.

We’re not done yet - the Kincaid drumbeat continues. During OTAs, Bills LT Dion Dawkins noted, “He’s going to explode. Dalton’s ready…Dalton is just Dalton, times 12” per Syracuse dot com.

Last quote, I swear, but in Matthew Berry’s annual “Most Interesting Things I Heard At The NFL Combine” piece, one of his notes was: “I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. ‘He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me,’ I was told.”

I’m beating a dead horse here, but Kincaid’s efficiency was almost certainly impacted by injuries in 2024. Per The Athletic, Kincaid now has a clean bill of health and “was the best pass catcher on the field for the Bills” on the final day of mandatory minicamp. 

Sorry, I know I promised no more quotes. But that was a short one. And there will be more later on.

Bottom line, though, is that the sky's the limit for a now-healthy Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid Is In The NFL’s Best Offensive Environment

I don’t need to explain to you why the Bills’ offense is a great environment for fantasy, so I’ll keep this section short and sweet.

Last season, the Bills’ offense scored the 6th-most Fantasy Points Per Game with 59.7, per FantasyPoints. This year, Buffalo has the highest Implied Team Total PPG (26.7) in the league, per Adam Levitan of Establish The Run. While the Bills do like to run the ball, they still logged a Pass Rate Over Expectation of +1.9% last season, ranking 12th in the league. Most importantly, Buffalo’s pass-catchers are tied to an elite quarterback in Josh Allen, but lack a target-hogging alpha.

Here are the 2024 PFF grades for each of the Bills’s pass-catchers, as well as where they stacked up:

Among 110 qualifying WRs:

Khalil Shakir (76.8, 28th)

Keon Coleman (68.8, 61st)

Josh Palmer (67.0, t-64th)

Curtis Samuel (62.6, 86th)

Elijah Moore (58.5, 99th)

Among 45 qualifying TEs:

Dalton Kincaid (76.6, 6th)

Dawson Knox (56.1, 40th)

Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Outside of Shakir, who I’ll discuss shortly, are you worried about any of these guys dominating targets? While Keon Coleman could certainly take a step forward in Year 2, Matt Harmon, who analyzes wide receivers at Reception Perception, had this to say about him: “The Bills used Keon Coleman as a vertical X-receiver in his rookie year, and seem to believe that’s his long-term role, but there is just nothing in his Reception Perception prospect or rookie year profile that indicates that he will become a high-volume consistent starter in that spot.”

My point is simply that Kincaid has an elite quarterback in Josh Allen, plays in what is projected to be the highest-scoring offense in the league, and is competing against a relatively weak room of pass-catchers for targets.

Kincaid Has Room To Grow As A Player

And, as discussed in the opening section, Kincaid’s per route metrics are fantastic.

However, he ran a route on just 58% of Buffalo’s dropbacks last season, 25th among 41 qualifying tight ends, per FantasyPoints. This figure was almost certainly impacted by Kincaid’s injuries, as he logged a Route Share of 64.9% from Weeks 1-9 before that figure fell to 51.0% from Weeks 15-17 post-PCL injury.

As a rookie, though, Kincaid’s route participation was 68.3%, 13th among 43 qualifiers, per FantasyPoints. That rate is in line with Kincaid’s 2024 rate pre-injury, and is likely close to what we could have expected from him were he to have remained healthy last season.

However, we’re going to need a better route share from Kincaid in 2025 if he’s going to truly break out in a big way. For context, Trey McBride (87%), Brock Bowers (80%), Travis Kelce (77%), and George Kittle (71%) were all above the 70% route share mark last season, per FantasyPoints.

So, how can we get Dalton Kincaid more routes?

Therein lies the rub. 

Those fading Kincaid this season don’t envision him building on that route share. Kincaid, who has always been referred to as more of a “big slot” receiver than a traditional tight end, ran 59% of his routes from the slot last season, the 4th-highest rate among 41 qualifying TEs, per FantasyPoints. He was in-line for just 26% of his routes, the 5th-lowest such rate among tight ends. To increase his overall route share, Kincaid would need to either 1) get more reps out of the slot or 2) play in-line more. 

This issue with option number one is that Buffalo’s top receiver, Khalil Shakir, specializes in the slot (72.9% slot rate in 2024, per Fantasy Points). To give Kincaid more reps there, the Bills would have to do so at the expense of Shakir, who lined up out wide on just 26.9% of his snaps last season. Given that Shakir is unlikely to play out wide, it seems improbable that Buffalo is keen on taking their best wide receiver off the field.

Which brings us to option number two: increasing Kincaid’s overall route share by getting him more reps in-line. 

Joe Buscaglia, who covers the Bills for The Athletic, summed it up nicely, saying “The ultimate test will be if Kincaid can increase his snap percentage and stay on the field for more run blocking reps, which would increase his overall versatility. If they can use more of the Kincaid and Knox combination as opposed to the jumbo package of six offensive linemen, it could definitely help their overall offensive environment. It remains to be seen how much Kincaid can grow in that area. If he does and stays on the field a bit more, he has the natural pass-catching skills to get his career trajectory back on track to what it was this time a year ago.”

Regarding that jumbo package he’s referring to - the Bills ran 148 plays with six offensive linemen in 2024, 66 more than the next closest team, per The Athletic. What if, like Buscaglia suggests, the Bills bring that number down and deploy their tight ends more? For that to be possible, Kincaid would need to improve as a blocker, which he has shown the ability to do over his first two seasons in the league. To my surprise, he logged a higher run blocking grade than Dawson Knox in both seasons:

PFF Run Blocking Grades:

2024 Dalton Kincaid - 65.1, 11th out of 65

2024 Dawson Knox - 57.0, 35th out of 65

2023 Dalton Kincaid - 57.0, 22nd out of 53

2023 Dawson Knox - 47.4, t-45th out of 53

I’m no run blocking expert, but the above data would certainly indicate that it’s possible for Kincaid to increase his route share by earning more in-line reps. Additionally, It’s worth noting that last season, from Weeks 1-9, 27.8% of Kincaid’s routes were run in-line, a decent jump from his rookie mark of 20.4%. Post-knee injury, that number fell to just 17.6% from Weeks 15-17, per FantasyPoints. It’s possible that Buffalo entered the 2024 season hoping to get Kincaid more in-line opportunities, but pulled back on that following Kincaid’s PCL injury.

Per The Athletic, “GM Brandon Beane remarked that Kincaid has been working incredibly hard throughout the offseason, spending much of his time in Buffalo. One of the areas the GM said they wanted to see Kincaid grow was to get stronger, to which Beane said Thursday that the tight end has added both strength and bulk to his frame in the offseason.”

If Kincaid is going to earn more in-line reps, that added bulk will certainly help his case. Plus, given Buffalo’s lack of pass-catching weapons, it’s likely that they, too, want Kincaid on the field as much as possible. After all, they spent the 25th overall pick on him just two seasons ago for that exact reason. Kincaid is entering just his third season as a pro - we can’t yet close the door on him earning a more valuable role for fantasy, especially given the context of his 2024 season. 

Kincaid Offers League-Winning Upside At A Bargain

Last season, betting on Dalton Kincaid in fantasy required 5th round draft capital - he was being drafted as the TE5. In 2025, you can access the same upside case in the 12th round of fantasy drafts, per FantasyPros Average Draft Position. 

Kincaid is now going as the TE14…yet, what exactly has changed? He’s still catching passes from Josh Allen in a high-scoring offense that is starving for playmakers. He’s a 1st-round prospect entering just his third year as a pro and is being dinged for an injury-riddled season that by all accounts could, and maybe should have, been cut short. His per route advanced metrics are awesome and prove his ability to earn targets at an elite rate. He’s due for positive regression after Josh Allen was uncharacteristically inaccurate when targeting him last season. He has a clean bill of health, stood out at minicamp, and most importantly, has the potential for an expanded role in 2025. 

If Kincaid hits, he has league-winning upside. At a 12th-round price tag, that’s the kind of low-risk, high-upside bet I’ll make all day.