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First downs per route run

Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints has written some awesome stuff about how 1st downs per route run is a quantifiably more stable metric than yards per route run and is better at predicting next year’s fantasy points - I highly recommend you check it out.

The basic premise is that 1D/RR rewards possession receivers while punishing players who gain yardage in less sustainable ways. While we want our fantasy receivers to be producing big plays, we don’t want them to be dependent on them. 1D/RR does a great job of highlighting the players who are consistently moving the chains for their offenses rather than making a few splash plays per game, as the former is more predictive of future fantasy production.

Here are last season’s top 15 WRs by 1D/RR (min. 250 routes):

1. Puka Nacua (0.18)

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (0.16)

3. Terry McLaurin (0.13)

4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.13)

5. Davante Adams (0.13)

6. Stefon Diggs (0.12)

7. George Pickens (0.12)

8. Jaylen Waddle (0.12)

9. Drake London (0.12)

10. Ja'Marr Chase (0.12)

11. Ryan Flournoy (0.11)

12. Rashee Rice (0.11)

13. Keenan Allen (0.11)

14. Tetairoa McMillan (0.10)

15. Nico Collins (0.10)

Does one name on that list stick out to you? And not just because I bolded it.

Ryan Freaking Flournoy!

And it makes sense, because if you watch the film (his 5 minute YouTube highlight reel from last season), it seems like every catch he made went for a first down.

I had already planned on writing up Flournoy for this post, as I’ve been drafting him like crazy based on a ton of factors working in his favor (I’ll get to those). But that was before pulling the 1D/RR data.

Once I saw that he ranked 11th in 1D/RR, the words were flying off my fingers. That’s a legitimate predictive metric supporting Flournoy’s upside case in addition to his role and offensive environment. I’m a full-fledged FlourBoy now (I believe Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon coined this term, and I am all in on it).

But look, one metric isn’t everything, I get it.

Despite not being anywhere near a focal point of the Cowboys’ offense in 2025, Flournoy posted some other strong numbers:

• 16th out of 91 qualifying WRs in PFF Grade (80.3)

• 12th out of 77 qualifiers in EPA per target (+0.45), per Next Gen Stats

• 12th out of 77 qualifiers in catch rate over expected (7.3%), per Next Gen Stats

• 35th out of 122 qualifiers in yards per route run (1.74), per PFF

That yards per route run figure, while not elite, is impressive to me given Flournoy was typically competing with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens for targets.

Return of the WR3

In a way, Flournoy feels like the type of bet that was popular a few years ago.

It seems as though the WR3 on an offense has become much less “sexy” for fantasy than it used to be. With the increase in heavy personnel and 2+ tight end sets across the league, 3-WR looks are no longer as prominent as they were in years past.

However, certain teams still project to utilize 11 personnel at a high rate in 2026. The Cowboys are one of these teams, as they ranked 3rd in the league in 11 personnel usage last season (68%), per FantasyLife. That means there is room for a legitimate WR3 to emerge behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, which figures to be a fruitful role for fantasy.

Last season, the routes behind Lamb and Pickens were spread out among Dallas’ ancillary receivers:

Jalen Tolbert is now a Miami Dolphin.

A former UDFA entering his age 30 season, we know who KaVontae Turpin is at this point. At 5’7, 158 lbs, he’s an explosive but limited gadget receiver useful on designed touches, but doesn’t profile as complete option behind Lamb and Pickens.

New acquisition Marquez Valdes-Scantling posted the 2nd-worst yards per route run (0.57) in the league last season (out of 112 qualifying WRs per PFF), a career-low for him. He signed a 1-year deal with Dallas for just $1.49M, meaning he is the 112th-highest paid WR in the league (tied with David Moore, Laquon Treadwell, and Lil’jordan Humphrey), per Spotrac. Dallas paid MVS depth receiver money, and that’s the role he will be limited to.

Do I even need to say anything RE: Jonathan Mingo? I suppose I’ll check this box just in case anyone out there remains in the MingoHive. Jon Machota, who covers the Cowboys for The Athletic, believes Mingo will be battling for a roster spot in training camp and the preseason.

Enter Ryan Flournoy, who enters year 3 of his NFL career primed for a true breakout. I believe Flournoy is going to consolidate the routes behind Lamb and Pickens and operate as the Cowboys’ clear WR3. With that role comes immense upside for fantasy.

“Super”

At 6’1, 202 lbs with 4.44 speed, Flournoy possesses elite athleticism. His 9.89 Relative Athletic Score ranked 39th out of 3402 wide receivers from 1987 to 2024.

In 2023, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman listed Flournoy on his annual “Freak’s List”, which identifies players whose athleticism is blowing the minds of those in their own CFB programs. Flournoy’s nickname was “Super” in college due to his weight room and on-field accomplishments, according to The Athletic’s Dane Brugler.

Coming out of college, the consensus assessment seemed to be that Flournoy had NFL-caliber size and athleticism as well as good hands, but would need to work on his route running in order to develop into more than a backup at the NFL level.

Well, it appears Flournoy has made strides in that regard, as Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon noted in a June episode of his podcast:

“My favorite deep sleeper in the league right now might be Ryan Flournoy. The guy can legit get open and win down the football field, too, on like some big, big boy routes. As a Z receiver, I’ve seen him win on big in-breakers, and those are key in this Cowboys’ offense - we know Dak Prescott can rip the football over the middle of the field.”

And that’s not just conjecture - we saw Flournoy excel when given his opportunities last season. Here are the 4 games in which he saw an elevated role:

• Week 5 (63.6% route share, Lamb OUT): 9 tgt, 6 rec, 114 yds, 0TD

• Week 6 (73.5%, Lamb OUT): 6-3-30-0

• Week 14 (68.5%, Lamb left game early): 13-9-115-1

• Week 18 (92.3%, Lamb & Pickens limited ): 7-5-68

Obviously, Flournoy’s noteworthy games came in CeeDee Lamb’s absence, and the contingent upside is massive were anything to happen to Lamb or Pickens in 2026.

However, my argument goes beyond Flournoy being a mere contingency play. He posted two 100-yard games while running a route on fewer than 70% of the team’s dropbacks. He’s talented, and he’s now proven that at the NFL level. He’s shown a true ceiling on limited opportunities, and I believe that he will be rewarded with a significantly larger role in year three.

Coachspeak

Don’t take it from me, though. Here are a few quotes from HC Brian Schottenheimer on Ryan Flournoy this offseason, per The Coachspeak Index, ESPN, and The Athletic:

June 9th: “I really think that Ryan Flournoy is taking the next step. I think he’s got a chance to be a terrific receiver in this league.”

June 16th: “[Flournoy’s] just doing incredible. Two 100-yard games last year. You saw him really just do it on a consistent basis. He’ll be the first one on the practice field, he’ll be the last one to leave.

Any time Dak Prescott wants to throw, Ryan will be out there making himself available. I think that’s huge, when you’re talking about quarterback and receiver timing and discipline and things like that. He earned it the right way — he earned it through special teams, by doing the run-blocking, the dirty work.

Now he’s one of those guys that, because he does everything right, Dak doesn’t hesitate when he looks his way. He just turns it loose. He gets to his spot. He has rewarded us with very, very big-time performances.”

June 18th: “There’s really not much that I don’t like about Flo. You saw him really take that step around the middle of last season, and he came back this year with a really strong intent for what he wanted to get done. He looks great, he’s moving great.

His routes, I think, have gotten better. Here’s a guy from a small school that’s come in and really adapted to the way we teach route breaks and releases and speed terms and power cuts and things like that. I really think the sky is the limit for him. He’s definitely a guy that we see finding ways to get him the ball.”

Additionally, ESPN put out an article last week covering the biggest “surprise player” on each team following OTAs and minicamp.

Who did they list for Dallas?

None other than Ryan Flournoy, who has been working in the slot more this offseason, per Cowboys reporter Todd Archer. In his blurb, Archer notes that the Cowboys “know what they have in Flournoy.”

Finally, Jon Machota, The Athletic’s Cowboys Staff Writer, referred to Flournoy as the Cowboys No.3 wide receiver in a piece this week, noting that he “continues to look like a player who has not reached his ceiling” and that he “should see a lot of advantageous matchups this season.”

Does all of that not get you pumped?

I’m probably getting out over my skis, but to me, this is starting to feel like one of the more obvious 3rd-year breakouts in recent memory. While the WR3 on any given team may not be desirable for fantasy, that’s a valuable role on the Cowboys.

There’s enough passing volume to go around

Cowboys 2025 Pace:

• 1st in plays per game (65.9)

• 1st in neutral playclock (11.81), per FantasyLife

• 2nd in seconds per play (28.0)

Cowboys 2025 Passing:

• 10th in dropback percentage (60.8%)

• 12th in dropback rate over expected (-0.98%), per nflfastr

That combination of playing fast and pass-heavy resulted in 36.7 pass attempts per game, the 3rd-highest mark in the league. That’s 4.6 more attempts per game than the 2025 league average (32.1) and 11.9 more than the league-low (24.8, Ravens).

As a result, there is more target volume to go around in Dallas than there is in your typical offense. Even better, that volume gets funneled to the wide receiver position - the Cowboys ranked 4th in WR target percentage (62.0%) last season.

Consequently, the Cowboys’ WR3 role is far more valuable than your typical WR3 role, and we need to be open to the idea that Flournoy can be a productive fantasy football asset even when Lamb and Pickens are healthy.

Take a look at the above chart, which reinforces my earlier point. If Flournoy is legitimately good, which I believe him to be, he should consolidate a lot of the receiving work behind Lamb and Pickens and thus carve out a productive role for himself in this offense.

Helping his case is the fact that Jake Ferguson is more of a compiler at tight end than a pass-catcher worth featuring. He ranked 36th out of 49 qualifying tight ends in yards per route run (1.20) last season, a career-low. His yards after catch per reception also cratered to a career-low 3.8, per PFF.

Offense worth investing in

While we are looking at last year’s data here, there is no reason to believe the Cowboys will change up their approach in 2026. HC Brian Schottenheimer is once again calling the shots, and this is how he likes to play. Plus, per The Coachspeak Index, Schottenheimer was asked if he wants to get more into 13 personnel like the NFL is trending towards, to which he responded:

“No, I think we’re always gonna try to play our best players. We think there’s a lot to getting our weapons and speed on the field.”

It makes sense that they would stick with what works - check out how the Cowboys’ offense performed in 11 personnel last season, per Sharp Football:

• #2 in EPA per play

• #3 in EPA per pass

• #4 in EPA per pass on early downs

• #4 in EPA per run

• #6 in EPA per run on early downs

Flournoy has a clear path to a strong route share given the team’s preference for 3WR sets. And merely being on the field on the Cowboys’ offense bodes well for fantasy production. Dallas’ offense has the 4th-highest average implied team total (26.0) while their defense has the 4th-highest average implied points allowed (25.0), per FFDataroma. As a result, we could see this team in a bunch of shootouts, with the added benefit that they play in a dome.

Thanks for reading!

-Stephen