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🔥 Flowers is better than you think

Among 92 wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes last season, Flowers finished 3rd in yards per route run (2.55), trailing only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This mark was the highest of Flowers’ young career, and builds on his year-over-year upward trend, per PFF:

• 2025: 2.53 yards per route run (3rd out of 92 qualifiers)

• 2024: 2.25 YPRR (16th out of 97)

• 2023: 1.72 YPRR (38th out of 96)

I like to break up yards per route run (inspired by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals) into its two components, targets per route run and yards per target, to see what’s driving each player’s YPRR value. As you can see in the chart above, Flowers was efficient in 2025:

• 7th in yards per target (10.3)

• 19th in targets per route run (24.8%)

Rather than relying on deep ball efficiency (see Alec Pierce, 20.0 average depth of target vs. Flowers’ 10.1), Flowers’ excellent YPT figure was the result of elite YAC ability, which is far more repeatable. Last season, Flowers ranked 12th among 91 qualifying wide receivers in yards after catch per reception (5.5), per PFF.

Additionally, Flowers scored:

• 5th out of 110 qualifiers in ESPN’s Receiver Score (77), which uses NFL tracking data to measure how well a receiver gets open, catches passes, and creates yards after the catch

• 15th out of 91 qualifiers in PFF Receiving Grade (81.6)

On top of being one of the most talented (and slept on) receivers in the league, Flowers has an elite role in Baltimore’s offense.

🥇 Flowers has a top 10 opportunity share

As the clear primary pass-catcher in the Ravens’ offense last season, Flowers finished:

• 11th among all WRs in target share (29.0%)

• 22nd in air yards share (35.7%)

• 10th in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR), which combines a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share (0.69)

The issue, however, is target volume in Baltimore’s run-heavy offense featuring Derrick Henry and a mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson. That’s where former Bears’ offensive coordinator Declan Doyle comes in.

🎯 Flowers should see more target volume

As Doyle enters the picture as Baltimore’s new OC, this is the first time we will see Zay Flowers paired with a non-Todd Monken play caller, as Monken was hired as the Ravens’ OC in 2023, the year Flowers was drafted.

With the ambiguity of this coaching change comes immense upside, as Flowers has two primary paths to increased target volume:

1. The Ravens play faster (more overall plays = more targets for Flowers)

2. The Ravens throw at a higher rate (more passing plays = more targets for Flowers)

And if both occur, we’re really cooking with gas.

While Doyle was not Chicago’s play caller last season (Ben Johnson was), Clifton Brown of BaltimoreRavens.com notes that Doyle was heavily involved in the offense, scripting practices and helping Johnson formulate the game plan each week. Digging into the Bears’ 2025 scheme under Johnson/Doyle will help us envision what Baltimore’s could look like in ‘26.

As you can see on the chart above, the Bears played faster and pass-heavier than the Ravens last season. They ranked:

• 4th in seconds per play (28.5)

• 22nd in dropback rate over expected (-3.28%), per nflfastr

• 7th in first down pass rate (52.1%)

The Ravens, on the other hand, finished:

• 30th in seconds per play (30.6)

• 31st in dropback rate over expected (-8.18%)

• 30th in first down pass rate (43.0%)

A large degree of Baltimore’s run-heaviness was obviously personnel-driven, as the Ravens are led by one of the best running QBs in the league, an elite RB in Derrick Henry, and the 8th-highest graded run blocking unit, per PFF (71.9).

However, per The Coachspeak Index, Doyle himself noted in an interview following the Ravens hire that:

“We want the ability to morph on offense. I’m not necessarily like, “hey, we need to run the ball 50% and throw the ball 50%.” We need to do whatever is best against the defense we’re playing, so, those ratios can change week to week, and we want to be able to morph week to week.”

It’s clear both in his scheme and coachspeak that Doyle wants this offense to attack both on the ground and through the air, opening the door for an uptick in the team’s dropback rate. It’s also worth noting that Derrick Henry turned 32 years old in January, though he’s proven to defy logic season after season.

In addition to Ben Johnson, Declan Doyle’s previous offensive mentor lends credence to the belief that the 2026 Ravens could play faster and pass-heavier than they did in 2025. Before landing the OC gig in Chicago, Declan Doyle previously worked on Sean Payton’s staff both in New Orleans (‘19-’21) and in Denver (‘23-’24).

Here’s how Payton’s Broncos ranked in pace, DROE, and first down pass rate last season:

• 7th in seconds per play (28.9)

• 5th in dropback rate over expected (+2.09%)

• 6th in first down pass rate (52.9%)

Doyle and both of his offensive mentors in Johnson and Payton have track records of playing faster and pass-heavier than last season’s Ravens. Even a moderate uptick in one or both categories would be a significant boost for Flowers’ target volume.

In addition to the potential volume boon, Flowers should benefit from matchup advantages as a result of Doyle’s proclivity for play action and shift-motion usage.

💨 Flowers thrives on play action

Play action plays have proven to increase efficiency for wide receivers. Across the league last season, 92 qualifying wide receivers averaged:

• 1.9 yards per route run on play action plays

• 1.5 yards per route run on non play action plays

Additionally, Zay Flowers thrived on play action, ranking 2nd among 92 qualifying WRs in yards per route run on play action plays (4.77), behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.27).

Last season, under Ben Johnson and Declan Doyle, the Bears ran play action at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (33%), per FantasyLife. The Ravens were still a top half play action team, but ranked lower at 13th with a 26% PA rate.

Moreover, utilizing pre-snap motion helps to confuse the defense and put pass-catchers in advantageous matchups. Here’s how the Bears and Ravens stacked up in shift-motion rate last season, per FantasyLife:

• Bears: 7th (60%)

• Ravens: 18th (52%)

If Doyle’s scheme creativity carries over from Chicago via increased usage of play action and motion, Flowers stands to benefit.

💣 Flowers is an explosive fit with Declan Doyle

In a February 17th interview on The Lounge Podcast shortly after the Ravens hired him, Doyle noted:

“We’re gonna hunt explosive plays on offense, we’re hunting 12+ yard gains in the run game and 16+ yard gains in the passing game, and everything we do is gonna be built that way where we’re trying to create explosive plays and score as many points as we can.”

If there is a player to feature in a passing game that values explosiveness, it’s Flowers, who logged the 8th-most explosive plays (16+ yard gains) among all pass-catchers last season (29).

🩺 Flowers benefits from a healthy Lamar Jackson

Last season, Lamar Jackson missed four games due to hamstring and back injuries, and seemed to be playing at less than 100%.

In 13 games played with Lamar last season, Flowers averaged:

• 15.03 PPR fantasy points per game

• 2.70 yards per route run

In 4 games without Lamar, Flowers averaged:

• 11.98 PPR fantasy points per game

• 2.01 yards per route run

With Lamar Jackson fully healthy, Flowers and the entire Ravens’ offense should be clicking, and Vegas agrees.

🚀 Flowers plays on a top 5 offense

Based on betting lines for the 2026 season, the Ravens have an implied team total of 25.9 points per game, the 5th-highest mark in the league, per FF Dataroma.

Additionally, projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers indicate the Ravens have the 6th-easiest schedule this season, per Sharp Football Analysis.

We want to be investing in high-scoring offenses for fantasy, and all signs point to the 2026 Ravens being one of those teams.

Thanks for reading!

-Stephen