🎯 Cokeheads Unite: Year 2 Breakout Incoming

A Personal Note

I’ve been meaning to write a little intro in each of my last ~5 emails, but every single time, the same thing happened. I wrote way more than I expected to about the player I was researching that week and got pushed up against my self-imposed deadline to send the newsletter, and had no gas left in the tank to write a personal note. But here I am, finally getting around to it. If you’re just here for the fantasy analysis, totally get it, you can skip this section.

4 months ago, Moves had 2 subscribers - my sister and my girlfriend. Today, Moves is up to 485 subscribers and is rapidly approaching the 500 mark. While that may not seem like a ton to most, I still remember freaking out that 25 people had subscribed to my newsletter. It just feels awesome that you all have enjoyed my stuff enough to subscribe and read it each week. I can’t thank each of you enough for supporting my writing and trusting me with your email address.

Which brings me to my plans for the season. To this point in the offseason, I’ve been sending out in-depth player writeups - if you’re newer to Moves, you can catch up on all my posts here. With most fantasy drafts wrapping up this coming weekend, I will now be shifting my focus to my weekly waiver wire writeups. That’s how I got started with Moves at the end of last season and I truly believe those writeups are my bread and butter. Therefore, the Coker writeup below will be the final player writeup of the summer, and the next email you receive from me will be my post-Week 1 Waiver Wire Players To Add. That’s where we’ll really get cooking.

In the meantime, if you’ve been enjoying Moves, I’d love it if you shared it with your friends. If you hate Moves, share it with your leaguemates.

Planning a special reward for anyone who gets 9 referrals and am finalizing the details on that. Stay tuned.

Thanks again for all the support, I’m having so much fun sending Moves your way each week. Now, let’s go win some leagues.

-Stephen

Cokeheads Unite: Year 2 Breakout Incoming

This week, the Panthers traded Adam Thielen to the Vikings, thus paving the way for Jalen Coker to have an increased role in their offense. Following the trade, Panthers GM Dan Morgan stated in a presser that Coker will step into the slot role, adding that he is somebody the Panthers’ organization is “extremely excited about”, calling Coker a “baller”. He added that the confidence they have in their young guys made them more comfortable pulling the trigger on the Thielen trade. HC Dave Canales added that “There’s guys that we’re excited to see play more and to have those opportunities. Jalen Coker is certainly one of those guys”, per The Coachspeak Index.

Last season, I was slow to join the Cokeheads given a) the target competition ahead of him b) I was unsure of his talent profile and c) I wasn’t a proponent of Bryce Young. And while I still am skeptical of Bryce Young being the type of passer that can elevate an offense, I do believe that Young and this entire offensive unit are set up for success this season. They enter year two under Head Coach Dave Canales with an improved offensive line (PFF’s 11th-ranked unit entering the season) as well as a clear-cut alpha in Tetairoa McMillan added to the mix.

The WR2 in Carolina?   

So, if this offense takes a step forward in 2025, Jalen Coker stands to benefit as Bryce Young’s slot receiver. He projects to be the number three pass-catcher in this offense with a pretty clear path to becoming the number two option behind Tetairoa McMillan. Why? Because as a UDFA, Jalen Coker was outright better than fellow rookie 1st-rounder Xavier Legette last year. Coker outperformed Legette in Fantasy Points Per Game (8.4 to 7.8), PFF Grade (72.8, 43rd out of 133 qualifiers to 59.1, 105th/133) Yards Per Route Run (1.83 to 1.26), and 1st Downs Per Route Run (.09 to .07), a metric that is similar to YPRR but is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting next year’s fantasy points, per FantasyPoints. Per Sharp Football Analysis, Coker produced just 19 fewer yards than Legette on 140 fewer routes. Additionally, Coker dominated Legette in Receiving Expected Points Added Per Target, which quantifies the net value a receiver adds on targets by translating yards gained into points scored. Coker’s Receiving EPA Per Target was +0.58, 8th-best among 84 qualifying wide receivers, per Next Gen Stats. Legette’s? -0.01, 7th-worst among 84 qualifiers, per Next Gen Stats. 

In addition to advanced metrics liking Coker, Matt Harmon, who analyzes wide receivers for Reception Perception, does as well. Per Harmon, Success Rate vs. Man Coverage is the most important metric he analyzes, adding that players who start to push north of 70% in that category are really good future bets. Coker cracked that threshold with a 70.5% Success Rate vs. Man Coverage in Year 1, good for 63rd percentile. Harmon claims that Coker projects best as a “big slot” and concludes his profile by stating: “If pressed for a deep sleeper across the NFL, Coker would be the first name out of my mouth. A shockingly strong Reception Perception profile for an undrafted player demands that kind of attention.” 

Jalen Coker is GOOD

Before we go further into his 2025 outlook, I want to talk a little bit more about who Jalen Coker is as a player. Admittedly, last season, I was very slow to buy in, thinking Coker was just a UDFA doing a nice job of filling in while Thielen was injured. But it’s clear that his performance was no fluke, and was rather a sign of things to come. Bryce Young echoed this sentiment in a February podcast with Jon Gruden, noting that “It went from let’s bring him (Coker) up to have extra guys out there… now he is a big part of our future.”

Coming out as a prospect, Coker had a Relative Athletic Score of 8.54 out of 10, with his “Elite” Explosion Grade making up for his “Okay” Speed Grade at 6’1, 208 lbs. However, PFF noted in their 2024 NFL Draft Guide that what Coker lacks in long speed, he makes up for in nuanced route running and consistent hands. PFF also notes that his 2023 collegiate Yards Per Route Run (3.51) landed in the 99th percentile at the position. His hands and per route efficiency translated at the professional level, as Coker logged a Catch Rate Over Expected of +11.4% last season, good for 4th among 84 qualifying wide receivers, per Next Gen Stats. 

Equally, if not more impressive, were his per route efficiency metrics. Per The 33rd Team, Coker ranked 5th among rookie pass-catchers in Yards Per Route Run last season, behind only Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers. Additionally, Coker led all wide receivers in Yards Per Catchable Target vs. Man Coverage in 2024, per Jacob Gibbs.

Coker’s Historical Comps

Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints notes that Coker's 43.5 receiving yards per game were the 8th-most by an undrafted rookie WR since 2000, and his impressive season puts him in good company. Coker joins Rasheed Shaheed as the only other UDFA receiver to average more than 1.0 Yards Per Route Run in the last five seasons, per The 33rd Team. Additionally, he joins Shaheed and Doug Baldwin as the only undrafted rookies to post 8.0+ PPG and a 70.0+ PFF Receiving Grade, per DynastyIm. Both Matt Harmon and JJ Zachariason have compared Coker to fellow undrafted and underrated power slot Jakobi Meyers, which is bullish for his outlook moving forward. Coker is objectively a very good wide receiver who now finds himself in a very good situation.

Across his final five games last season, Coker averaged a 19.0% target share, an 86.0% route share, and 10.1 PPR fantasy points per game. Now (and again) Minnesota Viking Adam Thielen was productive in his slot role across his final five games last season , averaging an 84.8% route share, 23.8% target share, and 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game, per FantasyPoints. While Tetairoa McMillan has been added to the mix and profiles as the clear alpha in this offense, Adam Thielen’s departure opens up valuable target share behind TMac and a lucrative slot role that the Panthers have already made clear belongs to Coker. 

In the two games (Weeks 8 and 10) that a) Bryce Young Started b) Adam Thielen missed and c) Coker posted a 50+% snap share, Coker saw a team-high 21.4% target share and 37.4% air yard share, per FTN Fantasy. Plus, Coker has proven to be awesome in the slot: on his 20 slot targets from Bryce Young last season, Coker averaged 2.65 yards per route, ranking 8th in Yards Per Route Run from the slot behind the following WRs, per Zareh Kantzabedian of 32BeatWriters:

1. Adam Thielen

2. Puka Nacua

3. Brian Thomas Jr

4. Rashod Bateman

5. George Pickens

6. Chris Godwin

7. Terry McLaurin

That’s pretty good company. 

Small Miss, Big Hit

We’ve established that Jalen Coker best profiles as a big slot, was efficient from the slot last season, and now has that role all to himself with the potential to become Bryce Young’s number two target. Additionally, Coker will be on the field a ton as the Panthers’ base personnel set utilizes three wide receivers - they ran out of 11 personnel at the 5th-highest rate last season (72%), per Zareh Kantzabedian. Furthermore, per Justin Boone of Yahoo Fantasy, Carolina has the 2nd-friendliest fantasy schedule for wide receivers and the 6th-friendliest slate for quarterbacks, meaning this passing attack will see a plethora of favorable matchups.

Coker enters Year 2 with a professional season under his belt and a boost of confidence as a clear part of the Panthers’ offensive plan. He noted the difference in how he feels entering his second season versus his rookie year to reporter Ashley Stroehlein, saying: “I think just going out there I'm not trying to figure out where I'm lining up & trying to see if I'm on the ball & everything. I feel more comfortable…I just feel good, confident.”

Per FantasyPros, Jalen Coker’s Average Draft Position in PPR leagues is 256 overall (WR79), which would be undrafted in most leagues. While that price likely doesn’t fully reflect his upward movement following the Thielen trade, he’s still going at the very end of fantasy drafts and requires nothing more than a late-round dart throw. If you’ve already drafted, he’s somebody to stash at the end of your bench before Week 1, and if you’re not into that, get ready to spend some FAAB if he pops. A promising young wide receiver entering year 2 in an ascending offense is the exact type of small-miss, big-hit upside bet I want to make at the end of my fantasy drafts.