🎯 The Undervalued RB Advanced Metrics Love

About a month ago, I decided to pull together all of my favorite advanced metrics into one spreadsheet. My plan was to identify undervalued and overvalued players heading into the 2025 fantasy football season. I’ve written about the surprising standouts at the wide receiver and tight end positions, and today I’ll be discussing the running back whose analytical profile took me by surprise.

That running back is Kenneth Walker. 

Eye-Popping Advanced Metrics (per FantasyPoints & PFF)

Here’s how Walker stacked up at the position last year:

Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt - 1st (0.30)

Yards After Contact Per Attempt - 6th (2.65)

PFF Rushing Grade - t-4th (91.3)

PFF Elusive Rating - 2nd (113.5)

Team Rushing Attempt Share - 6th (62.4%)

Team Target Share - 4th (12.7%)

Targets Per Route Run - 5th (0.24)

Yards Per Route Run - 17th (1.43)

1st Downs Per Route Run - 3rd (0.09) - A metric created by FantasyPoints that is similar to YPRR but is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting next year’s fantasy points.

Threat Rate - 6th (22.8%) - Targets per aimed pass on passing play snaps, per FantasyPoints.

Expected PPR Fantasy Points Per Game - t-4th (17.2)

So, what happened?

Kenneth Walker was getting top-5 fantasy running back type usage last season, yet underdelivered with a 16.5 PPR FPPG, RB12 finish by points per game. It gets worse - because he missed six games with injury, Walker finished the season at a middling RB27 overall. As a result, he’s now going as the RB15 in the 5th round of fantasy drafts, per FantasyPros ADP.

I’m going to rip off the bandaid and cover the bad news first, then we’ll get to the good stuff.

Long story short, Walker’s offensive line was terrible last season. Per FantasyPoints, Walker finished dead last among 36 qualifying running backs in Yards Before Contact Per Attempt (1.09). Seattle’s offensive line was not opening up lanes for him, and he had no room to run. Walker and Zach Charbonnet posted the 12th (48.4%) and 13th (48.1%) highest Stuff Rates, which measures percentage of runs that do not result in a first down or touchdown, less than 4 yards on first down, or less than 3 yards on any other down, among 36 qualifiers. 

As an offense, the Seahawks had the 5th-fewest rushing yards (1,627) and the 4th-lowest percentage of carries go for at least one yard (76.5%), per FantasyPoints. Consequently, their unit finished 24th in the league in PFF Run Block Grade (58.6) last season. While the Seahawks addressed their o-line concerns by spending the 18th overall pick on OG Grey Zabel, PFF still ranks their unit as the 3rd-worst in the league entering 2025.

So yes, that’s the bad news. There’s no getting around it - Walker’s offensive line was, and is…awful. 

Kenneth Walker’s Coaching Upgrade

Are you still with me? Okay, great. Here’s the good news.

Former Saints’ offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is the Seattle Seahawks’ new OC. With Kubiak comes a record of strong running back usage in an outside zone scheme that suits Kenneth Walker to a tee. 

Per Ryan Heath, here are the expected fantasy points per team play leaders since 2021 based on FantasyPoints data:

1. Christian McCaffrey - 0.31

2. Klint Kubiak's RB1 - 0.30

3. Alvin Kamara - 0.29

4. Joe Mixon - 0.28

5. Josh Jacobs - 0.27

Additionally, last season under Kubiak, New Orleans led the league in running back target share, per JJ Zachariason’s Late Round Draft Guide. Obviously, that’s not shocking given Alvin Kamara is one the league’s premiere pass-catching running backs. However, it’s worth noting on the heels of Walker’s 2024 season, after he logged career-highs in targets (53), receptions (46), and receiving yards (299) in just 11 games. Equally as enticing as Walker’s potential receiving work is Kubiak’s outside zone running scheme, which the Saints ran at the 2nd-highest percentage in the league last year, per ESPN.

Outside zone runs are where Kenneth Walker thrives. Per Jacob Gibbs of Fantasy Football Today, Walker has seen an efficiency boost on outside zone rushes throughout his career, whereas the opposite is true for Zach Charbonnet:

Kenneth Walker Outside Zone Rushes: 4.7 yards per carry

Kenneth Walker Non-Zone Rushes: 3.8 YPC

Zach Charbonnet Outside Zone Rushes: 3.7 YPC

Zach Charbonnet Non-Zone Rushes: 4.4 YPC

It’s possible, if not likely, that Walker will see an increase in both efficiency and utilization based on scheme fit with Klint Kubiak. Kubiak himself seemed to echo this sentiment in his introductory presser when asked about how Walker fits into his scheme:

"He's a talented player, so I'm really excited about him in this zone scheme…but I've seen Ken in all schemes play really good football. I've seen the guy catch the ball well out of the backfield, which I think is really important for our backs that we utilize them. Obviously, whatever we can do to get him touches, throwing him routes out of the backfield, throwing him screens, getting the ball in their hands, getting the ball to our best runners, and that’s what he is...we're going to ask a lot out of him."

Wheels up, baby.

It’s hard to read that quote and not get excited about Walker’s potential both on the ground and in the passing game in a scheme that suits his running style. Plus, his sheer number of opportunities should increase in what figures to be a run-heavier offense. Last season, the Seahawks were 29th in designed rush rate (33.7%) under then-OC Ryan Grubb. That rate will almost certainly see a boost in 2025, as the two offenses Kubiak previously coordinated have finished 11th (2021 Vikings, 39.6%) and 14th (2024 Saints, 39.8%) in that metric, per ESPN. 

Additionally, given how the Saints started their 2024 season under Kubiak, Seattle’s offense could be much more conducive to fantasy production in 2025. New Orleans’ offense was insane out of the gate, scoring 47 and 44 points in Weeks 1 and 2. From Weeks 1 through 5, they were 6th in the league in total fantasy points scored, per FantasyPoints. Unfortunately, their season was derailed by injury, losing Derek Carr in Week 5, followed by Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, and eventually Alvin Kamara. 

With DK Metcalf off to Pittsburgh and newly acquired wide receiver Cooper Kupp on the wrong side of the age cliff, Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are Seattle’s clear-cut top weapons. Coming off a career-high 4.6 targets per game, Kenneth Walker is slated for a featured role in a revamped rushing attack that caters to his running style. 

Kenneth Walker Fatigue Is Real

One of the primary factors dragging Walker’s ADP down is his injury history. Last season, he missed six games due to injury, suffering an oblique injury (2 games), calf sprain (2), and an ankle sprain (2). While he hasn’t suffered a serious long-term injury as a pro, it feels as though he is a regular on the injury report, as he has missed at least two games in each of his three professional seasons. Just last month at OTAs, Walker tweaked his ankle, but is expected to be fine.

Consequently, drafters are asking, “what if he gets banged up again?”

To which I’d respond, “what if he doesn’t?”

Because sometimes, for lack of a better way to phrase this, players are deemed “injury-prone” until they’re not. After all, Walker didn’t miss a single game to injury in three seasons of college football. It’s entirely possible that he’s just been on the wrong side of injury variance in his first three professional seasons, and that this year, he rights the ship.

Plus, while Walker has frequently been dinged up, he doesn’t have any severe injuries under his belt. Yes, he’s missed at least two games in every NFL season, but he’s never missed more than two games with one individual injury. Silver linings, right?

What Could Go Right?

In the 5th round of drafts, Walker’s injury risk and weak offensive line are more than priced in. And this is the type of player worth betting on at that price. A former 2nd-round pick with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.24 out of 10, Walker is an athletic freak, ranking 124th out of 1614 running backs from 1987 to 2022. Not only that, his 114.7 speed score places him in the 97th percentile. Still just 24 years old, he has improved as a running back in each of his three NFL seasons:

PFF Rushing Grade:

2024: 91.3

2023: 85.3

2022: 83.5

PFF Receiving Grade:

2024: 72.9

2023: 71.0

2022: 56.0

Entering his contract season, Kenneth Walker is a budding superstar. He’s proven to possess an explosive three-down skillset and stands to thrive in a run-heavier scheme tailored to his strengths. Rarely do we get access to bellcow running backs with this kind of athletic profile in the 5th round of fantasy drafts - fade Kenneth Walker at your own risk.