🏈 The Opporficiency Report + 12 Players To Add for Week 7

What’s up, Movers?

Below, I break down Week 6 Opportunity and Efficiency (hence, Opporficiency) at wide receiver, tight end, and running back.

Based on the data, I’ll identify 12 players worth adding on the waiver wire this week.

Without further ado…

Glossary (Data from FantasyPoints & PFF):

ROUTE % - Routes Run per Team Dropback

wTPRR - (Weighted Targets Per Route Run) - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals. My favorite metric for analyzing pass-catcher opportunity.

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share.

TOPS - (Total Opportunity Score) - a metric I created (inspired by Hermsmeyer’s WOPR) that combines a running back’s target share and rush attempt share. TOPS weighs target share more heavily than rush attempt share, as research has proven that targets are worth over 2x carries when it comes to fantasy production.

EXFP - Expected Fantasy Points (PPR) based on usage

FP - Actual Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

DIF - Difference between Expected Fantasy Points and Actual Fantasy Points

YPRR - Yards Per Route Run

Rostership - % of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in

Recommended FAAB Range: FAAB Range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. Check out FAABLab’s interactive bid calculator, which shows your win probability for any bid amount - it’s awesome.

Wide Receiver

Add Luther Burden - Coming out of the Bears’ bye week, I was excited to see if we would get a post-bye rookie bump for Luther Burden. We certainly did, as Burden logged season/career-highs in target share (13.8%) and route share (36.4%), leading the team in receptions with 4. While his 4-51-0 stat line is nothing to write home about, Burden’s usage continues to tick upwards. It’s only a matter of time before the electric 2nd-rounder (74.5 PFF Receiving Grade, 25th among 102 qualifiers) supplants career journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus (65.9, 60th/102) on Chicago’s depth chart.

Add Kendrick Bourne - Kendrick Bourne continues to ball out (9-5-142) while Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle remain sidelined and Jauan Jennings plays through 5 broken ribs as well as high AND low ankle sprains. Bourne’s stock will take a hit when any of Pearsall, Kittle, and Jennings return to full health, which could be as soon as this week. I’m not super excited about Bourne given his short-term viability, but if you’re in need of a Week 7 WR play, Bourne is the definition of plug and play if he is once again the healthiest pass-catcher on the team.

Add Kayshon Boutte - I’m not prioritizing Boutte this week as he has been inconsistent following his Week 1 breakout, and his 2TD performance in Week 6 is overshadowing the fact that he saw just 5 targets. Given that Stefon Diggs saw just 3 targets in this one, Boutte’s performance feels a bit like fool’s gold to me. That being said, Drake Maye is playing excellent football, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for adding Boutte with the hopes that he emerges as Maye’s number one. I thought that was possible after Week 1, but have since grown dubious, especially given Diggs’ performances in Weeks 4 and 5.

Add Sterling Shepard (5% rostered, 8-12% FAAB) and Tez Johnson (1% rostered, 6-10% FAAB) - Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans are all banged up, opening the door for Shepard and Johnson. I’m more interested in taking an upside shot on the 7th-round rookie in Johnson, who bested the veteran Shepard in route share, wTPRR, WOPR, EXFP, and FP in Week 6.

Tight End

Add Harold Fannin Jr. - I’ve been writing all season about Fannin Jr., who could see an increased role moving forward with David Njoku battling a knee injury, severity TBD. Fannin logged a season-high 74.1% route share in Week 6 as a result of Njoku’s injury, scoring a career/season-high 15.1 fantasy points.

Add Cade Otton - With Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans all injured, Otton should see more opportunities in Tampa Bay’s high octane offense. Otton is not a sexy add, but he’s a solid option if you need a short-term startable TE.

Add Oronde Gadsden - The 5th-round rookie logged season/career-highs in target share (21.1%) and route share (69.2%) in Week 6, notably while TE Will Dissly was active and in the lineup. His 8-7-68 performance could earn him continued increased usage moving forward.

Add Colston Loveland - It’s been a rocky rookie season for the number 10 overall pick, but he is now healthy following his hip injury. He’s looked good with the ball in his hands, and Chicago figures to increase his opportunities as the season continues. TE Cole Kmet isn’t anywhere near elite, and Chicago invested significant draft capital into Loveland - it’s only a matter of time before he earns the TE1 role.

Running Back

Add Kimani Vidal - Hopefully, you read my post last week and you added Vidal before he took over the Chargers’ backfield. Now, you’ll have to pay a pretty penny for him off the waiver wire, but he should maintain strong fantasy value for as long as Omarion Hampton remains sidelined.

Add Bam Knight - Knight is part of a pretty gross committee in Arizona’s backfield, ceding most of the pass game work and a large chunk of the backfield rushing attempts in Week 6 to Michael Carter. Knight fell into the end zone, but I’m not eager to add the 2022 UDFA. Trey Benson will eventually take the starting job back when healthy, and in the meantime, I don’t think Knight has much upside in this role. If you’re league is deep, however, sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.

Add Tyjae Spears - In his two games since returning from injury, Spears has seen his snap share jump from 26.2% to 59.3%, his rush attempt share from 17% to 33%, and his target share from 0% to 10.5%. Given that Tony Pollard hasn’t done a ton with his opportunities this season (albeit in a terrible offense), Spears could provide standalone fantasy value if he’s able to take on more work, especially in the pass game.

As always, thank you for reading! I hope you all have a great week.

-Stephen

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