🎯 Rookie Report: Don’t Sleep On These 3 Late-Round RBs

Rookie Report: Don’t Sleep On These 3 Late-Round RBs

Hey, everyone!

Thanks for being a Moves subscriber! I really appreciate the support.

Wanted to give you all a heads up that due to summer travel plans, this will be my last writeup until mid-June. Once I’m back, we’ll hit the ground running with my regular weekly cadence.

If you want to get caught up on my Rookie Reports, here are the three previous posts you may have missed:

6 RBs That Could Break Fantasy

Breaking Down The Big 4 WRs

5 WRs That Could Pop Off In ‘25

Today, I’ll cover three late-round running backs who have breakout potential in year one. Everyone listed in today’s writeup is ranked RB42 or later in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings, meaning you’ll be able to get them late in your fantasy drafts this season.

I’ve spent the last 50 days learning everything I can about the rookie class. During my research, I relied heavily on a few different tools and metrics that I find super helpful when trying to identify talented players. I’ll be referring to each of the following throughout this post:

PlayerProfiler Comparison: aggregates physical attributes, college production, and workout metrics to find each player’s most similar peer at his position.

Pro Football Focus (PFF Grade): a play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats. 0-100 scale.

Relative Athletic Score (RAS): a metric created by Kent Lee Platte that can easily and intuitively gauge a player’s athletic abilities relative to the position they play. 0-10 scale.

And some other metrics that I’ll explain as I go.

Enough small talk - let’s get to it.

Cam Skattebo (Drafted by Giants, Pick 4.03, 105th overall)

Cam Skattebo is a human wrecking ball, man. When I watched his tape (4.5 minute highlight reel), I was just blown away by his ability to bowl over defenders and run through contact. 

At 5’10, 219 lbs, Skattebo comps to Jay Ajayi (6’0, 221) per PlayerProfiler and James Robinson (5’9, 219) and Kareem Hunt (5’10, 216) per Relative Athletic Score (Skattebo scored a 7.45). While he lacks straight line speed with a 25th percentile speed score of 89.0 per PlayerProfiler, Skattebo is an all-purpose back who dominated college football last season. 

Among 129 qualifying running backs, he finished 2nd in PFF grade (93.3), t-2nd in missed tackles forced (103), t-4th in carries of 10+ yards (45), t-5th in rushing touchdowns (21), and 10th in Elusive Rating (140.3), which is a PFF Signature stat measuring success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking.

Additionally, Skattebo was an exceptional receiver out of the backfield, finishing t-8th in receptions (44), 2nd in receiving yards (543), and 2nd in yards per route run (1.95). 

He lands in a New York running back room with last season’s breakout 5th-rounder, Tyrone Tracy, as his primary competition for touches. And while Tracy surprised to the tune of four top-12 PPR RB weeks last season, his peripherals leave much to be desired.

Tracy finished 30th out of 31 qualifying running backs in PFF grade (58.4) and, despite being a converted college wide receiver, landed 20th in yards per route run with just 0.92. The advanced metrics per Next Gen Stats, however, are particularly damning. Among 41 qualifiers, Tracy finished 40th in rush success rate (31.8%), 30th in rush yards over expected per carry (-0.1), 35th in yards after contact per attempt (2.9) and 36th in expected points added per attempt (-0.16). Per Next Gen Stats, rush success rate measures the percentage of carries that result in positive EPA (expected points added), which quantifies the net value a ball carrier adds on run plays by translating yards gained into points scored.

TL;DR: Tracy left a lot of meat on the bone as a runner last season.

The Giants then proceeded to spend the 105th overall pick on Skattebo, who should immediately take over the early down work, at a minimum. Given his receiving skillset, I wouldn’t be surprised if he usurped Tracy as New York’s passing down back as well. 

In short, Skattebo is a talented prospect with a three-down skillset in a backfield with former 5th-rounder Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary (62.1 PFF grade, 34th out of 41 qualifiers). If some combination of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart can lead this offense to competent production, Skattebo has a path to immense upside in a workhorse role.

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars, 4.02, 104th overall) 

It shouldn’t surprise you in the slightest to see Tuten on the list, as he has quickly become the fantasy football community’s late-round darling after landing in Jacksonville with the 104th overall pick. 

I am very much one of those people who is all in on Tuten this season.

Drawing a PlayerProfiler comp of CJ Spiller (5’11, 196), Tuten (5’9, 206) is lightning in a bottle, flashing 4.32 speed - tied for the 4th-highest (with De’Von Achane) recorded 40-yard dash time for a running back in NFL Combine history. Additionally, his 9.55 RAS was the 6th-highest in this running back class.

Among 129 qualifying college running backs last season, Tuten had the t-10th most rushing attempts go for 15+ yards (21), per PFF. Additionally, he had the 7th-highest Elusive Rating (143.2) and the t-16th most missed tackles forced (62). 

Furthermore, Tuten was hand-picked by Jacksonville’s new regime under GM James Gladstone and HC Liam Coen. Per Gladstone himself, he actually mentioned Tuten as a priority day three target for the Jaguars during the interview process, before he even landed the job. 

Combine that with the fact that Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are not elite backfield competition, and you can see a clear path for Tuten’s rookie season breakout. 

Among 31 qualifying running backs last season, Travis Etienne (60.7) finished 29th in PFF grade. He lacked the explosiveness he’s flashed in the past, finishing 35th among 41 qualifying running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry with -0.3, per Next Gen Stats. He also logged the 2nd-fewest missed tackles forced per attempt (0.09) and the 7th-highest stuff rate (50.7%), per FantasyPoints. For my fellow stat lovers out there, a "stuff" is any run that does not result in a first down or touchdown, less than 4 yards on first down, or less than 3 yards on any other down. 

And while Bigsby took a step forward in year two, he’s not a special talent by any means, finishing 25th among 31 qualifying running backs with a 68.1 PFF grade. At best, he’s a two-down grinder offering very little in the passing game - he finished dead last in both PFF receiving grade (36.8) and yards per route run (0.42) among 31 qualifiers.

Long story short, the new coaching staff in Jacksonville owes Etienne and Bigsby no loyalty. They’re going to put their best players on the field, and there is a very good chance their best running back is the one they hand-picked in Bhayshul Tuten. When you combine his explosive, playmaking profile with a weak running back room and an ascending offense under HC Liam Coen, you get a path to a breakout rookie season for Tuten.

Jaydon Blue (Cowboys, 5.12, 149th overall)

While it took me some time to see the vision with Jaydon Blue, I’ve come to be pretty high on him this season. 

Why? 

Let’s start with his primary backfield competition, Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. 

I’ll back this up with data momentarily, but let me cut to the chase - neither of these guys have much juice left. Among 70 qualifying running backs last season, Sanders (68.0) and Williams (61.7) finished t-43rd and 56th in PFF grade, respectively. 

Williams finished 58th in that group in Elusive Rating (37.3), t-62nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.40), 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.13), 54th in yards per carry (3.69), and 50th in explosive run percentage (2.9%), which measures percentage of runs that go for 15+ yards, per FantasyPoints.

Sanders finished t-31st in Elusive Rating (60.3), t-55th in yards after contact per attempt (2.51), 54th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.11), 51st in yards per carry (3.73), and 58th in explosive run percentage (1.8%). 

And while Miles Sanders didn’t log enough carries to be a qualified rusher per Next Gen Stats, Javonte Williams finished 40th out of 41 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry with NEGATIVE 0.6 (-0.6). 

Enter Jaydon Blue, the rookie 5th-rounder out of Texas, who at 5’9, 196 lbs. draws a PlayerProfiler comp of Nyheim Hines (5’8, 198). His 6.34 RAS is weighed down by “poor” size grade and an “okay” explosion grade, despite a “great” speed grade.

By his smaller frame and the Hines comp, you would immediately think “pass-catching change of pace back” - and that’s actually what initially had me skeptical of a breakout rookie season for Blue. 

However, we just saw Bucky Irving (5’9, 192), who is nearly identical in size to Blue, take over Tampa Bay’s backfield as a rookie. I’m not saying this is by any means the norm or to be expected - the odds are definitely stacked against Blue doing that - but we don’t have to look that hard to find a recent example of the upside case for a running back Blue’s size. 

A former track star in high school (fun fact, he and Packers rookie WR Matthew Golden were football teammates both in high school and college), Blue’s speed is his calling card - his 4.43 40-yard dash time lands in the 92nd percentile. Additionally, he’s exceptional as a receiver out of the backfield, logging the 6th-most targets (58), t-10th most receptions (41), and the 10th-most receiving yards (365) among 129 qualified running backs last season. Blue also finished 11th among running backs in yards per route run with 1.59, per PFF. 

Now, Blue has just 215 total college rushing attempts to his name, with 135 of those carries coming in 2024. That’s not a lot, and the low rushing volume would indicate that Texas didn’t view Blue as a lead back. It’s worth noting, however, that he was stuck behind talented backs in Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Brooks until last season. 

More importantly, though, Ben Gretch points out on the Stealing Bananas podcast that the Cowboys organization has shown they don’t care how their running backs have been deployed historically. Last season, they fed 2020 UDFA Rico Dowdle, who was purely a special teamer until 2023, 235 carries as their lead back. Who’s to say they don’t continue the trend of leaning into their own player evaluations?

While Blue’s size and skillset most likely limit him to a pass-catching /rotational back role, I like the idea of taking shots on him given the lack of talent in the Cowboys’ running back room. He’s a speedy back with serious pass-catching chops, which should earn him third down opportunities right away. If Blue flashes playmaking potential at the NFL level, there’s a real chance his role could expand into something more concrete and valuable for fantasy. 

That’s all for today - thanks for reading! I’ll talk to you all in mid-June.

In the meantime, I’d love to hear your feedback regarding content you’d like to read this summer. Please reply to this email with any ideas you have so I can make sure to cover those topics when I get back!

Stephen