🏈 Route Report + Players To Add/Buy/Sell

What’s up, Movers?

Wanted to try something a little different this week and give you all a peek into some of the data I’m looking at when identifying players to add, buy low, sell high, etc.

For receivers and tight ends, my favorite metric to look at is Weighted Targets Per Route Run, which I’ll define below. It was created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and I find it to be one of the best ways to evaluate pass-catchers for fantasy football.

In addition to wTPRR, I like to look at Weighted Opportunity Rating and Expected Fantasy Points for utilization, and Yards Per Route Run for efficiency.

I also like to look at how a player’s Fantasy Points Scored differs from their Expected Fantasy Points so that we can identify potential undervalued / overvalued players to capitalize on for trades. I’ll break all that down below, as well as my Moves for Week 4.

Without further ado…

Glossary (data from FantasyPoints):

RTE % - Routes Run per Team Dropback

wTPRR - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating, created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a player’s air yards share and target share

XFP - Expected Fantasy Points based on usage

FP - Actual Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

DIF - Difference between Expected and Actual Fantasy Points

YPRR - Yards Per Route Run

Wide Receivers

Add Luther Burden - one of my favorite rookies entering the season, Burden is slowly but surely seeing his opportunities increase in Ben Johnson’s offense. Most of his Week 3 points came on the one deep flea flicker TD, but the 39th overall pick should see his role continue to grow.

Add Tre Tucker - while I’m not certain how sticky Tucker’s role will be, his Week 3 blowup performance came on strong underlying usage. I’m willing to add the 3rd-year player and see if the breakout is real.

Add Tyquan Thornton - with the Chiefs “optimistic” that Xavier Worthy could return in Week 4 and Rashee Rice a few weeks out from returning, I don’t think Thornton is a long-term solution for your fantasy roster. However, his Week 3 usage was great and could continue for at least another week while Worthy eases back into a full-time role.

Add Tory Horton - Moves OGs know I’m big on Tory Horton, who both caught a touchdown and returned a punt for a score on Sunday. While his role will need to grow to be reliable for fantasy, the rookie’s talent continues to jump off the screen.

Add Parker Washington - Washington turned a whopping 11 targets into just 34 receiving yards in Week 3, so I’m not exactly running to the waiver wire to add him. Plus, Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter combined for just 8 targets, which I don’t expect to be the norm. However, 11 targets is 11 targets, and there’s a slim chance Washington’s uptick in usage could be a sign of things to come.

Add Calvin Austin - Austin’s role is a big slice of a pretty small pie. His WOPR of 78 is fantastic, but the Steelers have the 8th-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation, per FantasyPoints.

Buy Low on Chris Olave - Chris Olave is the WR1 in Expected Fantasy Points Per Game and the WR30 in Actual Fantasy Points Per Game. His 35 targets are tied with Puka Nacua for the most among all receivers.

Buy Low on Tetairoa McMillan - McMillan’s role is incredibly strong for fantasy, and he’s coming off a week in which he underperformed his expected output by 9.3 points. Feels like this may be the only real window to trade for him all season.

Tight Ends

Add Hunter Henry - Henry is unavailable in the majority of leagues, but is now the overall TE3 in FPPG following his 29-points Week 3 performance. Must-add if available.

Add Colston Loveland - The 10th overall pick started off hot on Sunday, earning 3 targets on his first 5 routes before exiting the game with a hip injury. It really feels like Chicago was looking to get their rookie playmaker going early, and his 31-yard snag had me wishing I didn’t drop him last week. Loveland apparently avoided severe injury and has a chance to play in Week 4, so his early Week 3 exit may allow you to add him for less FAAB than he deserves.

Add Oronde Gadsden -The rookie 3rd-rounder, known for his pass-catching chops, earned 7 targets in Will Dissly’s absence. I’m willing to take a flier on him to see if he can carve out a role for himself.

Add Brenton Strange - Strange is a low-ceiling, but decent floor tight end play in a pinch.

Sell High on Mark Andrews - After posting a total of 2.9 fantasy points through two weeks, Andrews exploded with a 2TD, 27.1 point performance, providing you with a perfect sell window. Andrews’ usage was solid, but the pair of TDs is making it seem more than it was. Zay Flowers only saw 3 targets in this one, which I don’t expect to be the norm, and fellow TE Isaiah Likely is eyeing a Week 4 return.

Running Backs

Add Trey Benson - James Conner is out for the season, meaning you empty the FAAB for Benson if he is somehow on your waiver wire. The 2024 3rd-rounder will be the RB1 for Arizona, and he’s a talented Year 2 player with a 98th percentile speed score, per Player Profiler.

Add Woody Marks - The rookie’s snap share continues to rise as Nick Chubb continues to look meh. Houston liked Marks enough to trade a 2026 3rd-round pick in order to move up and draft him in Round 4. His pass-catching skillset is great for fantasy, especially when you consider the poor state of Houston’s offensive line, and there’s almost no chance Joe Mixon is playing for the Texans this season.

Add Ollie Gordon - Gordon seems to be earning a complementary role for himself in Miami’s backfield, and has plenty of contingent value were Achane to go down.

Buy Low on Jaylen Warren - Jaylen Warren earned a bellcow workload in Week 3, playing 77.6% of snaps, logging 18 carries and 6 targets. He scored just 13.1 fantasy points versus an expected 22.1, meaning your leaguemate might not yet know what he has in Warren. Rookie RB Kaleb Johnson was a healthy scratch in Week 3 - this is Warren’s backfield.

Thanks for reading! If you have any feedback on this format/content, I’d love to hear it - just reply to this email. Hope you all have a great week.

-Stephen

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