🏈 Route Report + 17 Players To Add/Buy

What’s up, Movers?

You all seemed to like last week’s format, giving you a peek into the data I’m looking at when identifying players to add/buy/sell, etc.

So, we’re running it back!

As a refresher, for receivers and tight ends, my favorite metric to look at is Weighted Targets Per Route Run, which I’ll define below. It was created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals, and I find it to be one of the best ways to evaluate pass-catchers for fantasy football.

In addition to wTPRR, I like to look at Weighted Opportunity Rating and Expected Fantasy Points for utilization, and Yards Per Route Run for efficiency.

I also like to look at how a player’s Fantasy Points Scored differs from their Expected Fantasy Points so that we can identify potential undervalued / overvalued players to capitalize on for trades.

Finally, for running backs, volume and opportunity are king. I’ll highlight the backs who saw the biggest jump in Snap Share and call out the players deserving of an add off the waiver wire.

Below, I break down all the data we’re looking at and highlight the 17 Moves to make this week. Here we go:

Glossary (Data from FantasyPoints):

RTE % - Routes Run per Team Dropback

wTPRR - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating, created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a player’s air yards share and target share

XFP - Expected Fantasy Points based on usage

FP - Actual Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

DIF - Difference between Expected and Actual Fantasy Points

YPRR - Yards Per Route Run

Rostership - % of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in

Recommended FAAB Range: FAAB Range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool.

Wide Receivers

Add Darius Slayton - With Malik Nabers out for the season, both Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson (49% rostered) are worth adding where available. Jaxson Dart kept the offense moving in his debut.

Add Troy Franklin - A dropped deep ball kept Franklin from having a much bigger day for fantasy, but he continues to earn quality targets at a strong clip behind Courtland Sutton. Franklin and Sutton have logged the highest route shares among Denver pass-catchers every week this season.

Add Romeo Doubs - While the three touchdowns propped up an otherwise pedestrian 8-6-58 outing, Doubs has posted the highest route share among Packers wide receivers every week this season. On a potent offense like Green Bay’s, that’s a role worth rostering, even though I don’t expect Doubs to be any sort of league-winner.

Add Elic Ayomanor - While Ayomanor continues to impress with his target-earning ability, Tennessee’s offense continues to look hapless. Who knows if or when Cam Ward and Co. will turn things around, but if they do, Ayomanor would benefit in a big way.

Add Isaiah Bond - Once touted as a potential Top 50 pick in this year’s Draft, the speedy Bond went undrafted due to off-the-field issues. Since signing with the Browns, however, both Bond’s Route Share and Target Share have increased week-over-week. The rookie’s 71.1% Route Share and 17.1% Target Share in Week 4 were second only to Jerry Jeudy among Cleveland’s pass-catchers. With Cedric Tillman now on Injured Reserve, the door is wide open for Bond to cement himself as a staple in this offense. Dillon Gabriel is expected to make his first start in Week 5, and it’s possible that he and Bond establish chemistry right away.

Buy Low on Jameson Williams - JaMo’s Week 4 role was awesome, but he only has 5.7 fantasy points (versus 19.5 expected points) to show for it. His 29.6% target share and 8 targets were season-highs, yet his 2-40-0 statline likely has his fantasy managers miffed. I’d be buying JaMo low with the hopes that his Week 4 utilization is a sign of things to come.

Tight Ends

Add Darren Waller - Albeit on limited snaps, Waller turned 4 targets into a 3-27-2 statline in his 2025 debut. With Tyreek Hill done for the year, Waller should see an increase in opportunities as he settles into his role in Miami.

Add Harold Fannin Jr. - Fannin Jr. is still rostered in just 36% of Yahoo leagues. I understand that his performance following the Week 1 breakout has been disappointing, but I’m still adding the rookie where available for the following reasons.

1. Fannin Jr. out-snapped David Njoku 57-56 in Week 4, the first time that’s happened all season.

2. WR Cedric Tillman was placed on Injured Reserve, opening up more opportunities for Browns pass-catchers moving forward.

3. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel is expected to start for the Browns in Week 5. I’m willing to lean into the variance here in the event that Cleveland’s passing game is more efficient under Gabriel or that he locks on to Fannin Jr. as his favorite target.

Add Theo Johnson - The 2nd-year tight end tied Wan’Dale Robinson for a team-high 23.8% target share in Jaxson Dart’s first start. A freak athlete drafted in the 4th-round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Johnson’s Relative Athletic Score of 9.92 ranked 10th out of 1,199 tight ends from 1987 to 2024. With Malik Nabers out for the year, Johnson could become Jaxson Dart’s go-to safety blanket.

Add Mason Taylor - The 2nd-round rookie had the best game of his young career, turning 7 targets into 5 catches for 65 yards. His 25.9% Week 4 target share was 2nd on the team behind Garrett Wilson, a role he could continue to build on given New York’s bleak wide receiver room.

Add Brenton Strange - Strange continues to offer a solid floor but a low ceiling. He’s an acceptable plug and play tight end option in a pinch.

Add Elijah Arroyo - In Week 4, Arroyo posted season-highs in Route Share (53.3%) and Target Share (15.4%). Known for his pass-catching abilities as a prospect, the rookie could become fantasy viable should his role continue to grow.

Running Backs

Add Woody Marks - If you read my waiver wire writeups either of the last two weeks, you already had Marks stashed before his breakout Week 4 performance. If you missed the boat, you’re going to need to shell out some serious FAAB to acquire Marks on the waiver wire. Fantasy’s overall RB6 on the week (27.9 PPR points), Marks led the Texans’ backfield in rush attempts (17), rushing yards (69), targets (5), and receiving yards (50), scoring two touchdowns to boot. Nick Chubb continues to look meh and Joe Mixon is almost certainly not coming back this year. The rookie has all the makings of a potential league-winner, so I would be doing everything in my power to make sure I’m the highest FAAB bidder. Personally, I would be emptying my FAAB for Marks - we don’t get these opportunities often.

Add Rachaad White - This one is pretty simple - Bucky Irving is getting an MRI on his ankle, meaning Rachaad White is the next man up in a fantasy-friendly role were Irving to miss time.

Add Kenneth Gainwell - With Jaylen Warren missing Week 4’s matchup with Minnesota, Gainwell exploded with a 31.4-point, overall RB3 performance. The Steelers are now on bye, giving Warren a chance to heal up before Week 6, but Gainwell is worth adding to see if his impressive performance earns him a standalone role in Pittsburgh’s backfield.

Add Kendre Miller - In Week 4, Miller saw a season-high 32.3% snap share, while Alvin Kamara logged a season-low 72.3%. Miller was efficient on his opportunities, turning 11 carries into 65 yards and a touchdown. Should the gap between Kamara and Miller continue to narrow, Miller could offer both standalone value and contingent value in the event of a Kamara injury or trade.

Add Brashard Smith - Smith posted a season-high 25.7% snap share in Week 4, and according to The Coachspeak Index, Head Coach Andy Reid noted that OC Matt Nagy is trying to increase Smith’s reps every week. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have been underwhelming with their opportunities, so the rookie could continue carving out a larger role in this offense. A former wide receiver, Smith is known for his speed and pass-catching chops, an exciting skillset to pair with Patrick Mahomes.

Thanks for reading! I hope you all have a great week.

-Stephen

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