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Crazy week for Stribling’s outlook

Mike Evans on which of the 49ers’ young WRs is standing out:

“Strib”

Brock Purdy on “Strib”:

“Dude is a baller, and I mean that. He’s a great route runner. He’s smart. He’s learned the playbook really quick.”

and then

“This dude has proven to all of us that he’s reliable and we can trust him…I got a lot of trust in him right now."

Finally, NBC 49ers Insider Matt Maiocco on if Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel should be the 49ers' top 2 WRs:

"I think it's Mike Evans and De'Zhaun Stribling."

Oooo baby. What a week for De’Zhaun Stribling stock, man.

It started out with Christian Kirk going down with a calf strain. 49ers reporter Grant Cohn said he’d be shocked if Kirk were on the active roster for Week 1.

Then, it comes out that Ricky Pearsall is potentially (likely?) out for the entire 2026 season after reaggravating his 2025 PCL injury:

Per NBC 49ers Insider Matt Maiocco, "This doesn’t look good…at this point I think it's reasonable, rational, logical, for the 49ers to not expect Ricky Pearsall to make any contribution in 2026."

Then, there were the glowing camp reports. Tim Kawakami of The San Francisco Standard reports that “Stribling is big, accelerates out of cuts very smoothly, catches the ball cleanly, and seems to have quickly earned the trust of the QBs.” He is “tracking right now to becoming a full-time player faster than anybody expected”, per 49ers reporter Cam Inman.

The Stribling hype train left the station overnight, and I feared I had missed my window. It looked as though he was going to be such an obvious “sleeper” that he would quickly ascend into the late middle rounds.

But the 49ers proceeded to sign Deebo Samuel, thus slowing the Stribling steam and capping his ADP. Thank goodness for that, because despite the Deebo signing, I am very in on drafting Stribling in fantasy this season.

The truth about ‘26 Deebo Samuel

I think it’s worth addressing the Deebo signing upfront as it DOES matter for Stribling’s outlook. Last season, I was overconfident that Keenan Allen wouldn’t dramatically impact Ladd McConkey’s target share. I was very clearly wrong on that, even if Allen was inefficient on his targets.

Like Allen, Deebo Samuel is not the player he once was, but he still commands targets. He earned a target on 23.1% of his routes run last season, good for 22nd out of 76 qualifying WRs, per TruMedia.

That being said, I don’t think Deebo’s return to the 49ers blocks Stribling’s path to a breakout. 49ers reporter David Lombardi writes that Samuel “won’t have the same featured role that he muscled through in his first go-round with the team”, referring to Deebo as a “secondary offense weapon”.

The 49ers spent the 33rd overall pick on Stribling, whereas they reportedly signed Samuel to an incentive-laden 1-year, up to $7M contract. That’s less money than Jahan Dotson ($7.5M APY) got from the Falcons, per Spotrac, and David Lombardi notes that the 2026 cap hit is almost certainly under $5M. San Francisco didn’t break the bank to bring Deebo back.

Plus, Deebo’s best days as a ball-in-hand specialist are behind him. In 2025, Samuel logged:

• 6.5 yards after catch per reception (career-low, has declined each of the past five seasons)

• 0.24 missed tackles forced per reception (career-low, has declined each of the past three seasons)

• 1.66 yards per route run (2nd-lowest mark of his career, behind only his 2024 season)

• 69.3 PFF Grade (career-low, has declined each of the past two seasons)

Samuel’s return certainly clouds Stribling’s initial role, but let’s not get caught playing the “projectable volume” game. I want to zoom out and bet on the upside of the athletic freak rookie WR with strong draft capital emerging over the declining vet brought in on a cheap deal, even if the vet has a larger projectable Week 1 role.

Which brings me to Stribling himself. There’s more to like about his profile than the 33rd overall draft capital, which shocked the fantasy football community on draft day. But draft capital is extremely important for fantasy outlook. According to Adam Schefter, there were multiple teams that felt like Stribling was the best wide receiver in the draft, and the Rams were supposedly one of the teams eyeing him.

Let’s dive into why teams were so into this guy.

Freak Athlete

First, he’s an athletic freak with a 9.57 Relative Athletic Score. That ranks 182nd out of 4196 wide receivers from 1987 to 2026. His 4.36 40-yard dash time sits in the 96th percentile, and he has good size at 6’2, 207 lbs, per PlayerProfiler.

That speed shows up on the field via his YAC ability. Among 149 qualifying CFB wide receivers last season, Stribling ranked t-16th in yards after catch per reception (7.3). He’s not particularly shifty, but he’s a powerful ball-carrier with straight-line acceleration that pops on film (his 5-minute YouTube highlight reel).

Seriously, go watch his highlights - you’ll quickly board the hype train. I’ll be here when you get back.

Additionally, Stribling has great hands. He had the t-11th lowest drop rate (1.8%) among that same cohort of 149 qualifiers last season. That was just one (1) drop on 74 targets.

And lastly, we have his run blocking ability, which is undoubtedly a big reason San Francisco gave Stribling one of their 16 “gold helmet” distinctions among all prospects in the 2026 draft class. Per Albert Breer, the 49ers’ “gold helmets” are prospects who check every box from an athletic, football, and character standpoint.

Stribling was viewed by many as the best blocking receiver in the class. We don’t score points for blocks in fantasy, but that’s a skillset that can earn Stribling playing time right away via increased utilization in condensed sets.

Now-Minnesota Viking Jauan Jennings was a run blocking specialist and thrived in Shanahan’s scheme despite lacking Stribling’s athleticism. Stribling has an immediate path to volume via the Jauan Jennings role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Don’t take my word for it though, Shanahan himself said exactly that:

Per The Coachspeak Index, on April 24th, when asked whether De’Zhaun Stribling’s reputation as a blocker means that he can step into the Jauan Jennings F position, Shanahan replied:

“Yes, definitely. This guy can definitely fill that hole. I really fell in love with him as a route-runner, how fast he is, how big he is, how good his hands are, how physical he played with the ball. When you watch a guy with that size and how physical he runs with the ball, you assume that he’s a good blocker - and then to confirm that he’s the best blocker in the draft and has elite blocking skills was real cool to watch.”

If Stribling does in fact earn that role, he has the talent and athletic ability to be more efficient than Jauan Jennings was with his opportunities. The difference between their two profiles is stark:

Jennings:

• Drafted 7.03 (217th overall)

• 6’3, 215 lbs

• 4.72 40-yard dash (6th percentile)

• 2.76/10 RAS

Stribling:

• Drafted 2.01 (33rd overall)

• 6’2, 207 lbs

• 4.36 40-yard dash (96th percentile)

• 9.57/10 RAS

Dig Route King

As I do with any prospect evaluation, I turned to those much smarter than me to learn more about De’Zhaun Stribling.

Matt Harmon, who analyzes wide receivers at Reception Perception, had the answers I needed. In his Stribling profile, Harmon writes:

“Overall, I think De’Zhaun Stribling is a really nice sleeper candidate as a mostly outside prospect in the 2026 class. He is physical, shows flashes of strong separation skills against man coverage and is already a credible ball-winner and carrier in the open field. He can play all three spots and projects as a usable outside option, given his success rates vs. man and press.”

Harmon goes on to note that Stribling is particularly skilled at running in-breaking routes such as slants and digs. He and his co-host James Koh discussed this further on Reception Perception: The Show.

In this episode, which was recorded before the NFL Draft, Harmon notes, “If we’re talking about Stribling as an off-ball outside receiver who does kick inside a little bit, those in-breaking routes are going to be a big part of his diet.”

They went on to dream about ideal landing spots for Stribling, listing a McVay or Shanahan-type offense as the perfect fit given how his skillset could be utilized.

Well, how about landing with Shanahan himself? Stribling’s fit with the 49ers could not be better, as Shanahan’s scheme utilizes in-breaking routes heavily, creates YAC opportunities, and values the versatility that comes with strong blocking receivers.

Harmon and Koh noted that Stribling’s best route was the dig, on which he recorded an 83.3% success rate. Bleacher Report NFL Insider James Palmer is in agreement, stating that Stribling “murders you on dig routes” on his podcast with NFL legend Steve Smith.

As luck would have it, the 49ers ran the highest rate of dig routes in the league last season (11.7%), per TruMedia.

Shanahan’s system has elevated players like Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, Marquise Goodwin, Dante Pettis…guys that aren’t considered exceptional talents.

What if De’Zhaun Stribling is a special talent?

Blame Lane Kiffin

One interesting thing I wanted to note from my Stribling research was his production at Ole Miss.

After averaging a 3 catch, 39.1 yards, 0.2 TD statline through the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season, Stribling got hot down the stretch.

• Week 11: 4 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD

• Week 12: 4-66-2

• Week 13: 5-79-1

• Week 14: 7-122-0

• Week 15: 5-77-0

One potential reason for the limited early-season production? Lane Kiffin.

Per Albert Breer, during the pre-draft process, GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan spoke to former Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin about Stribling. Breer notes that Kiffin “conceded he was late to the party on Stribling, which limited him a bit early in the year, and that his offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis Jr., saw a special talent right away.”

The 49ers are in need of a special, young talent, as their stars are aging and battling injuries:

• WR Mike Evans - turns 33 in August, coming off injury-riddled ‘25

• TE George Kittle - turns 33 in October, tore achilles in January

• RB Christian McCaffrey - turned 30 in June

• WR Deebo Samuel - turned 30 in January

• WR Christian Kirk - turns 30 in November

• FB Kyle Juszczyk - 35 years old. Irrelevant for fantasy, relevant for this next sentence.

Per Associated Press Sports Writer Josh Dubow, the only teams in the Super Bowl era to start 5 non-QB skill position players age 30 or older in the same game:

• 2004 Bucs (1 game)

• 2003 Broncos (1 game)

• 1992 Washington (2 games)

With Pearsall out of the picture, the 49ers need De’Zhaun Stribling to play an immediate role as the young, playmaking talent in this offense.

Thanks for reading!

-Stephen