MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

With the trade deadline officially behind us, we have some interesting adds this week - check them out below!

As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

TPRR - Targets Per Route Run

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric - Projects every defense’s fantasy points allowed over expectation to each position. ETR’s DvP is based on each defense’s last eight games and weighs recent games more strongly.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I write about players rostered in 40% or fewer of Yahoo leagues, AKA guys who are widely available.

Recommended FAAB - FAAB range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. This is just a starting point - you’ll need to tweak your FAAB bids based on roster needs and leaguemate tendencies.

Note: I went back and watched every play in every game for each player I wrote about below. While I’m a data nerd at heart, I’ve found that watching the film allows me to pick up on certain sequences, momentum, and honestly, vibes, that the data can’t capture. This helps to provide a complete picture of a player’s performance rather than simply leaning on box score or even advanced stats alone.

All data in this post comes from FantasyPoints unless otherwise noted.

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WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
Tank Dell (14% rostered)

It was so good to see Dell have a big game in Week 9 (9-4-105-1).

In his second game back following his devastating leg injury, Dell’s route share jumped from 13.3% to 55.0%, and his target share went from 3.6% in Week 7 to a team-leading 24.3% in Week 9.

He made a nice grab along the sideline on his 63 yard touchdown in the 2nd quarter, with his speed taking him the rest of the way. Dell made another big play in the 4th quarter, getting wide open for a 32-yard chunk play.

Dell is showing flashes of the player he was pre-injury, and with Stroud playing well, Houston’s passing attack is worth investing in. They’re averaging the 3rd-most passing yards per game (269.4) and rank 7th in pass rate over expectation (+3.9%).

Recommended FAAB: 10-18%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Caleb Douglas (30% rostered)

It appears that Douglas has emerged as the the Dolphins’ top receiver, as he logged a season/career-high 30.8% target share in Week 9, turning his 8 targets into 6 catches for 70 yards. He leads all Dolphins pass-catchers in route share (74.0%) since he returned from his ankle injury in Week 7.

He looks really good, too. The rookie had a sweet catch in the 1st quarter where he climbed the ladder to come down with the ball, and he later had a nice grab on a comeback route to pick up a first down on 3rd & 12.

He could’ve had a bigger day, too, as he had a 10 yard grab called back for holding and later dropped a 17-yard pass on 4th&12 in with 3:00 left in the game.

This offense plays slow and run-heavy, but with Malik Willis headed to injured reserve with a groin injury, it's possible they pass a bit more with Kyle McCord at QB in his absence.

Recommended FAAB: 10-15%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Tutu Atwell (1% rostered)

With Puka Nacua out with MCL and PCL sprains, Davante Adams still recovering from his hamstring injury, and Jordan Whittington an IR candidate due to a back injury, who is up next in the Rams’ WR corps?

You could make the case for Tutu Atwell or Konata Mumpfield. I have no idea if either will be particularly useful for fantasy, as LA could very well just lean even further into their heavy personnel and multi-TE sets.

Here’s what McVay said about the two on “The Coach McVay Show”, per The Coachspeak Index:

“I think Mump has done a great job with the opportunities that he’s had — as has Tutu. Both of those guys have gotten a lot of snaps over the last couple weeks, and I think you’ll see that target share increase, with them getting some opportunities.”

That being said, my preference is Atwell, who I’ve frankly just seen more from in this offense, even if it isn’t much. Over the last 3 weeks, Atwell and Mumpfield have the same exact route share (52.5%), but Atwell has bested Mumpfield in target share (9.3% to 6.2%).

Recommended FAAB: 3-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Reggie Virgil (1% rostered)

Michael Wilson is done for the season, Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Brooks are on IR, Jacoby Brissett is a Raven, and Gardner Minshew could need season-ending elbow surgery.

That means Carson Beck is in line to start at QB, and Reggie Virgil next up at WR. I’m not thrilled to invest in this player or this passing game, but I’m fine rolling the dice on Virgil, who at least has the upside of being the mystery box 5th-round rookie.

Virgil actually had a sweet toe-tap catch on the sideline for 25 yards on a 1st quarter 3rd down against the Seahawks in Week 9, and he led all Cardinals’ pass-catchers in target share (21.4%) when Carson Beck was at QB this preseason, per TruMedia.

Recommended FAAB: 3-5%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Laquon Treadwell (0% rostered) and Deion Burks (0% rostered)

Keenan Allen is now a 49er and Josh Downs is a Chief.

That leaves Laquon Treadwell, Deion Burks, and Ashton Dulin next up at the position for the Colts.

Treadwell is sort of the “safe” add here as he has the clearest path to volume given his existing role, but I’m not excited at all about his upside in this offense.

With Burks, you get the theoretical upside of a rookie that Indy may want to give some more looks down the stretch.

I personally prefer Burks here, but I’m not excited about either one.

Recommended FAAB: 1-3%

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Corey Kiner (5% rostered)

Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) is expected to miss the next few weeks, and TreVeyon Henderson’s return timeline remains unclear.

Next man up is Kiner, who is overall just kind of solid, but has flashed some powerful running at times this season. He’ll face Detroit (2nd-worst matchup for RBs by ETR’s Defense vs. Position metric) in Week 10 before the Patriots’ Week 11 bye.

It’s not the best setup, but we care most about volume when it comes to fantasy RBs, and times are tough out there at the position.

Recommended FAAB: 8-16%

RUNNING BACKS
Audric Estime (5% rostered)

With Kendre Miller released and Travis Etienne still out, Estime slotted in as the Saints’ lead back, putting up a 15-72-1 stat line and catching his only target for 5 yards.

Travis Etienne still isn’t practicing, meaning Estime could continue to lead New Orleans’ backfield in Week 10 against the Panthers, who are the best matchup for RBs by ETR’s defense vs. position metric.

Recommended FAAB: 6-10%

RUNNING BACKS
Dylan Sampson (28% rostered)

Sampson has carved out a nice complementary pass-catching role in the Browns’ backfield, logging season-highs in snap share (62.9%), designed carry share (30.8%), and target share (20.7%) in Week 9.

The result was just 21 rushing yards on 8 carries and a 6-3-27 receiving stat line, but it’s possible that Sampson’s role turns in some usable flex play weeks in PPR leagues, especially considering how weak the position is right now.

Recommended FAAB: 3-6%

RUNNING BACKS
Kaleb Johnson (2% rostered)

Josh Jacobs is reportedly expected to miss a maximum of three weeks with his finger injury.

Green Bay’s run game is terrible, and will most likely be a messy committee of Kaleb Johnson, Pierre Strong Jr., and MarShawn Lloyd (knee) if healthy while Jacobs is out.

That being said, if I had to pick one of these guys to add with the hopes that they can get me some usable production, it would be Johnson, who led the backfield with 14 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown in Week 9.

Johnson did most of his damage on a 34-yard scamper on the first play of the 4th quarter. He honestly looked good on that one, but this Packers o-line is rarely opening lanes like that one - Green Bay ranks 2nd-worst in yards before contact per rush (0.69), per TruMedia.

Making matters worse, the Packers get the Vikings in Week 10 (8th-worst matchup for RBs per ETR’s Defense vs. Position metric), have their bye in Week 11, and then get the Rams in Week 12 (11th-worst matchup).

Recommended FAAB: 2-4%

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Darren Waller (7% rostered)

Waller logged season-highs in route share (67.4%) and target share (25.6%) in Week 9, posting a 10-8-90-1 stat line.

His leaping 15-yard TD grab came on a 3rd & 9 in the 3rd quarter, and it was pretty sweet - he looked like prime Waller.

Bryce Young has been dealing this season, so I’m interested in adding Waller on any teams where I need some upside at the position. Not sure how sticky this usage will be given the presence of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, but it’s possible Waller’s role grows following his best game of the year.

Recommended FAAB: 3-5%

WEEK 10 STREAMERS

QUARTERBACKS

• Aaron Rodgers (34% rostered) vs. Bengals (8th-best matchup for QBs by Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (DST)

• Ravens DST (39% rostered) vs. Chargers (2nd-best matchup for DSTs by Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric)