MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

Between all the injuries and bye weeks, sometimes we are forced into what I call “nasty” starts - players you just don’t feel great starting, but you have to given the circumstances.

Below, I highlight 17 of these players that you may not feel great rolling out there, but have the opportunity to produce for you in Week 10.

As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

Implied Team Total - projected point totals for each team based on NFL odds

Opponent FP Over Expectation Allowed (%) - Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric, which projects every defense’s fantasy points allowed over expectation to each position. ETR’s DvP is based on each defense’s last eight games and weighs recent games more strongly.

% Rostered - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I’m covering players rostered in 90% or fewer of Yahoo leagues, trying to leave out the weekly roster locks and focus on players that inspire less confidence in your starting lineups. Some of the players covered here will be obvious starts, while some will only be applicable to those who desperately need to fill a roster spot.

Note: I’ve watched every play in every game for each player I wrote about below. While I’m a data nerd at heart, I’ve found that watching the film allows me to pick up on certain sequences, momentum, and honestly, vibes, that the data can’t capture. This helps to provide a complete picture of a player’s performance rather than simply leaning on box score or even advanced stats alone.

All data in this post comes from FantasyPoints unless otherwise noted.

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QUARTERBACKS

QUARTERBACKS
Starts

Bryce Young (78% rostered) vs. Saints - Not that nasty of a start. Young was dealing last week against Denver and now gets a winnable, middle of the pack matchup against New Orleans.

Aaron Rodgers (44% rostered) vs. Bengals - The epitome of a streamer you can actually feel pretty good about. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and 3 TDs (and a pick) against the Bengals in Week 3, and they’re the 8th-best matchup for QBs. Cam Ward threw for 300+ yards and a pair of touchdowns against Cincinnati in Week 8. Plus, Pittsburgh is fresh off their bye week. Not that nasty.

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Starts

Zach Charbonnet (89% rostered) vs. Raiders - In his second game back, Charbs’ designed carry share jumped from 35.3% to 55.2%, while Jadarian Price’s dropped from 58.8% to 31.0%.

Price saw more work in the passing game last week and both backs will continue to be involved here (that’s really the only nasty part), but this is a good spot against the Raiders, the 4th-best matchup for RBs.

Corey Kiner (62% rostered) vs. Lions - This is a really nasty start for multiple reasons. Number one, Rhamondre Stevenson was reportedly going to be out multiple weeks with his knee injury, but after surprisingly logging multiple limited practices, he is now questionable to play THIS WEEK .

If they do hold Stevenson out this week though, Kiner slots in as the lead back against Detroit, who pose the 2nd-worst matchup for fantasy RBs. Kiner has been fine when his number has been called this season, but he’s mostly going to get what is blocked. Pretty nasty start here, but volume is volume, and we gotta do what we gotta do.

Audric Estime (42% rostered) vs. Panthers - Travis Etienne practiced Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and is questionable for this week. If he’s unable to go, Estime slots in as the lead back against Carolina, the best matchup for RBs.

He performed well last week in that role (15-72-1), and offers touchdown upside despite not offering much in the pass game (Kamara’s presence does make this start slightly nasty).

Emmett Johnson (32% rostered) vs. Falcons - Kenneth Walker surprisingly missed practice today with a sore groin. If he is unable to play this week, Johnson could absolutely smash in a plus matchup. The rookie has looked awesome this season and would almost certainly see the bulk of the backfield work in K9’s absence. If Walker misses, I honestly wouldn’t consider this nasty at all - Johnson is awesome. RUN to your waiver wire and add him if available.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
Starts

Deebo Samuel (74% rostered) vs. Cowboys - Deebo is a strong play this week if cleared (I expect him to be), going up against the 2nd-best matchup for WRs.

Mike Evans isn’t expected to play, and while Keenan Allen is now in the mix, I doubt he’s going to be fully up and running right away. That being said, Allen’s presence does make this play a little nastier, as he is a veteran target-earner who could get more run that expected right out the gate.

Jordyn Tyson (57% rostered) vs. Panthers - Tyson saw 4 targets on just 16 routes in his return last week, and HC Kellen Moore expressed the following after the game, per The Coachspeak Index:

“In (Tyson’s) mind, he could have played a lot more snaps last week. I thought he did a good job. We’ll certainly add a healthy dose more, and it’ll start feeling more like a normal volume, I think, moving forward.”

This start feels a bit nasty given we don’t know what Tyson’s route share is going to look like, but he’s already proven to be a strong target-earner while on the field. I’m banking on his snaps to jump significantly after he was able to emerge from his first game back unscathed.

Wan’Dale Robinson (54% rostered)  and Chimere Dike (3% rostered) vs. Jaguars - Carnell Tate is out again this week, and Robinson (91.3%) and Dike (69.6%) paced the team in route share in his absence in Week 8.

I prefer Robinson here, but if he’s not available in your league, you can spot start Dike, who went 6-5-71-1 in Week 8, as well. Never feels good putting your faith in Tennessee’s offense, but they’re going to have to throw the ball to keep up (catch up) with Jacksonville’s offense, likely in garbage time.

Tutu Atwell (25% rostered) and Konata Mumpfield (14% rostered) vs. Cardinals - This Rams pass-catcher situation is really tough to parse through, and starting either of these guys feels pretty nasty. If I had to choose one, I’d personally go Atwell given I’ve seen more from him in this offense.

That being said, it’s entirely possible (if not likely) that neither of these guys benefit substantially from the absence of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and that the passing attack runs almost entirely through the tight ends.

Plus, you have the presence of rookie WR CJ Daniels who has been getting some hype. I wouldn’t be shocked if he (6’2, 202) plays more than expected given his size advantage over Atwell and Mumpfield. All of these WRs are certified Nasty fantasy plays.

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Starts

Hunter Henry (64% rostered) vs. Lions - It’s undeniably a great matchup for Henry (the single best matchup for TEs), but it’s a little bit nasty given the potential return of AJ Brown (questionable) as well as the emergence of rookie Eli Raridon, who out-targeted Henry 6-3 last week.

Tyler Higbee (24% rostered) and Colby Parkinson (2% rostered) vs. Cardinals - There’s good news and bad news here. The good news is that with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams out, the Rams’ TEs should see additional opportunities given their preference for heavy personnel and lack of a strong WR3 option.

The bad news is that it is quite difficult to predict which of these guys is going to get more work this week. If I had to start one of them I’d probably go Higbee, but I’ve gotten this exact call wrong multiple times this season.

Making matters worse is that Higbee is battling an illness and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday and Colby Parkinson (ribs) is battling an injury of his own. I’d guess both of them end up playing, but this is a pretty nasty situation to try to predict, even in a good matchup for TEs (6th-best).

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Starts

Ravens DST (78% rostered) vs. Chargers - It’s been a tough stretch for Baltimore’s defense, playing the Jags, Bills, and Bengals the last three weeks. But now, they get the hapless Chargers, who have shown zero signs of life on offense.

Packers DST (71% rostered) vs. Vikings - With Kirk Cousins back in the saddle, this matchup isn’t quite as appealing as it would’ve been with Carson Wentz under center (duh).

However, Green Bay’s defense is red hot, and it could take a couple weeks before things start clicking for Minnesota’s offense. It’s only slightly nasty though given there is always the chance Cousins picks up right where he left off, especially considering how well he’s played this season.