MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

Hope you’re having a great week! Here are some charts and starts to help you make those difficult lineup decisions for Week 9.

As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

Implied Team Total - projected point totals for each team based on NFL odds

Opponent FP Over Expectation Allowed (%) - Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric, which projects every defense’s fantasy points allowed over expectation to each position. ETR’s DvP is based on each defense’s last eight games and weighs recent games more strongly.

% Rostered - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I’m covering players rostered in 95% or fewer of Yahoo leagues, basically leaving out the weekly matchup-proof roster locks such as Josh Allen, Gibbs, Puka, Bowers, etc. Some of the players covered here will be obvious starts, while some will only be applicable to those who desperately need to fill a roster spot.

Note: I’ve watched every play in every game for each player I wrote about below. While I’m a data nerd at heart, I’ve found that watching the film allows me to pick up on certain sequences, momentum, and honestly, vibes, that the data can’t capture. This helps to provide a complete picture of a player’s performance rather than simply leaning on box score or even advanced stats alone.

All data in this post comes from Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position data unless otherwise noted.

QUARTERBACKS

QUARTERBACKS
Starts

Matthew Stafford (95% rostered) vs. Commanders: 3rd-best matchup for QBs, 7th-highest implied team total

Streamer: Malik Willis (30% rostered) vs. Lions: 2nd-best matchup for QBs, 13th-lowest implied team total

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Starts

Quinshon Judkins (95% rostered) vs. Saints: 5th-best matchup for RBs, 6th-lowest implied team total

Jonah Coleman (86% rostered) vs. Panthers: best matchup for RBs, 13th-highest implied team total

Woody Marks (82% rostered) vs. Chargers: 13th-worst matchup for RBs, 16th-highest implied team total

Chris Rodriguez (36% rostered) vs. Ravens: 9th-worst matchup for RBs, 8th-highest implied team total. Spot start if Bhayshul Tuten (ankle, foot, game-time decision) isn’t able to play tonight.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
Starts

Emeka Egbuka (93% rostered) vs. Bears: 8th-best matchup for WRs, 7th-lowest implied team total. If Egbuka (foot) is able to play, he is startable against the Bears. Bucs have been super run heavy, but will need to throw more in this one to keep up with Chicago’s offense.

A.D. Mitchell (32% rostered) vs. Chiefs: 3rd-worst matchup for WRs, 5th-lowest implied team total. Bad matchup, but Mitchell is coming off an awesome Week 8 and is startable if Garrett Wilson (concussion) is unable to play.

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Starts

Harold Fannin Jr. (93% rostered) vs. Saints: 8th-best matchup for TEs, 6th-lowest implied team total

Kyle Pitts (80% rostered) vs. Bengals: 3rd-best matchup for TEs, t-8th-highest implied team total

HAIL MARY: Terrance Ferguson (17% rostered) vs. Commanders: 2nd-best matchup for TEs, 7th-highest implied team total. TFerg is back at practice, but I doubt he plays this weekend coming off IR. That being said, if he is somehow activated for this game, it’s a great setup for him.

HAIL MARY: Eli Raridon (2% rostered) vs. Packers: 5th-worst matchup for TEs, 11th-highest implied team total. Bad positional matchup, and of course only worth considering if Hunter Henry (foot) is unable to play.

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Starts

Texans DST (89% rostered) vs. Chargers: 2nd-best matchup for DSTs, 4th-lowest opponent implied team total.

Jaguars DST (87% rostered) vs. Ravens: 15th-worst matchup for DSTs, lowest opponent implied team total. Ravens starting rookie UDFA QB Joe Fagnano.

HAIL MARY: Saints DST (43% rostered) vs. Browns: best matchup for DSTs, 6th-lowest opponent implied team total.

HAIL MARY: Giants DST (12% rostered) vs. Eagles: 13th-worst matchup for DSTs, 3rd-lowest opponent implied team total. Eagles starting Joe Milton.