MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

So good to be back following an awesome Week 1. As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

TPRR - Targets Per Route Run

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I write about players rostered in 40% or fewer of Yahoo leagues.

Recommended FAAB - FAAB range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool.

Note: All data in this post comes from FantasyPoints Data unless otherwise noted.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Devaughn Vele (8% rostered)

While Vele’s per route metrics and overall opportunity share in the above chart are not at all impressive, that’s largely due to the sheer volume of passing plays (56 pass attempts!) the Saints ran in Week 1. They played with the fastest pace in the league (22 seconds per play), per TruMedia, and posted the 3rd-highest pass rate over expectation (+9.0%).

Vele logged the highest route share on the team (87.3%) and turned his 9 targets (16.1% target share) into a 7-69-1 stat line. His 19.9 fantasy points were the 2nd-highest of his career, and his two highest-scoring fantasy games have come in his last four games dating back to Week 13 of last season, per Next Gen Stats.

As long as Jordyn Tyson remains out, Vele should see his fair share of opportunities as the clear WR2 in Kellen Moore’s pass-happy offense.

Recommended FAAB: 10-15%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Caleb Douglas (12% rostered)

You could make the argument that Malik Washington is worth an add as well, but I prefer the unknown upside of the Dolphins’ 3rd-round rookie, who posted a 7-5-94 stat line on a 22.2% target share in his first career start.

Douglas’ 2.94 yards per route run ranked 14th at the position on the week, compared to 1.43 for Malik Washington (45th), per PFF. His 14.4 fantasy points were the 3rd-most from a rookie WR in Week 1 since 2022, per Next Gen Stats.

I don’t know if the Dolphins will be any good, but Douglas is a fun add.

Recommended FAAB: 7-10%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Antonio Williams (2% rostered)

Williams only ran 11 routes (28.9% route share), but the rookie flashed target-earning ability, turning his limited routes into a 4-64-1 performance. His Week 1 mark of 5.82 yards per route run ranked 2nd at the position, behind only Zay Flowers, per PFF.

Per Next Gen Stats, Jayden Daniels had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Williams, and the rookie deserves to see more looks going forward.

Recommended FAAB: 5-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Kalif Raymond (1% rostered)

Trust me, I wasn’t excited to write this one, but the underlying usage for Kalif Raymond in Week 1 was just too strong to ignore. He played well, too, going 8-84-0 on 9 targets, and ranking 8th at the position in yards per route run (3.82), per PFF.

According to Next Gen Stats, Raymond’s 16.4 fantasy points were his most since Week 18 of 2021.We know who Raymond is at this point in his career, though, and I’m not suggesting he offers any sort of breakout potential.

However, we saw Ben Johnson give Olamide Zaccheaus a surprising amount of work just last season. Were Raymond to fall into a similar role, even temporarily, he could have a solid floor for fantasy on one of the best offenses in the league.

I expect Colston Loveland (laid a goose egg), Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze to be the focal points of this offense, but I consider Raymond to be worth a speculative add given what we saw in Week 1.

Recommended FAAB: 5-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Denzel Boston (28% rostered)

Boston didn’t blow up the box score (4-2-59-1), but he led Cleveland’s WR room in route share (90.0%) in his first career game and looked as advertised on a 46-yard touchdown bomb from Deshaun Watson.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Add Pat Bryant (8% rostered)

Despite operating as the team’s WR3 in route share (63.6%), Bryant led the Broncos in target share (22.2%), per SūmerSports.

The result was a mediocre 6-4-42 performance, but Bryant looks to be building on the momentum from his rookie season and should continue to carve out a nice role for himself on an offense that ranked 4th in dropback percentage in Week 1 (70.2%), per TruMedia.

Recommended FAAB: 3-5%

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Add Kenyon Sadiq (14% rostered)

While Sadiq caught just 3 passes for 21 scoreless yards, his freak athleticism was on display as he scored a 3 yard rushing touchdown on an end around. According to Next Gen Stats, Sadiq reached a top speed of 20.09 mph on that play, the 4th-fastest mark by a TE on a rush in the NGS era (since 2016).

Sadiq saw just a 46.2% route share in his debut, but we should see the 1st-round rookie’s role grow quickly now that he’s heathy following sports hernia surgery this summer.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

TIGHT ENDS
Add Mike Gesicki (2% rostered)

Similar to my Kalif Raymond note above, I really didn’t want to write about Mike Gesicki. We’ve seen him pop up for big games from time to time in Cincinnati, but he is consistently limited by his route share.

That was no different in Week 1. Despite posting a 7-5-78-1 stat line, Gesicki ran a route on just 45.9% of the Bengals’ dropbacks, which ranked 31st at the position, per TruMedia.

Plus, Tee Higgins caught just 3 balls for 59 yards, and Ja’Marr Chase was held to an abysmal 4-2-12 performance, which is a clear anomaly and won’t be the case moving forward.

The more I write this, the less interested I am in adding Gesicki. I wanted to make note of his strong Week 1 utilization, but I’m moving him to the bottom of my tight ends section. If you really need a playable tight end and want to bank on the efficiency here, go for it, I just think the inconsistency is going to be pretty frustrating.

Recommended FAAB: 3-5%

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Add Kaelon Black (27% rostered)

To the fantasy community’s surprise, Kaelon Black out-carried Christian McCaffrey 14-10 in Week 1, logging 65 rushing yards and a 5-yard reception. Black's 44% snap share was the highest by a 49ers RB not named Christian McCaffrey in game that McCaffrey has started and finished since he became a 49er in 2022, according to Next Gen Stats.

The debate seems to be whether San Francisco is taking on more of a split backfield approach in order to keep CMC fresh, or if this was merely San Francisco easing McCaffrey back in after he missed some training camp time with "tightness”.

Per The Coachspeak Index, Shanahan noted in his postgame presser,

“That was the goal for us, coming into this, trying to balance it out more — whether it was with Kaelon, whether it was getting Deebo Samuel some carries. Then Christian went out a little bit, with cramps, but he didn't miss much and came back quick. They all helped today.”

I think the answer is somewhat in the middle - that Black will be more involved than we’re accustomed to from a non-CMC 49ers RB, but maybe not quite as dramatically as we saw the split in Week 1, especially given McCaffrey was battling cramps.

Regardless, Black is a strong add as the clear handcuff to Christian McCaffrey with the upside of a potential standalone early down role in the 49ers backfield.

Recommended FAAB: 9-11%

RUNNING BACKS
Add Emmett Johnson (20% rostered)

As we saw on Monday night, Kenneth Walker is the clear top dog in Kansas City’s backfield.

Emmett Johnson got some extra run with the game out of hand, however, and showed some serious juice. Among all running backs with at least 10 touches in Week 1, Johnson ranked 1st in missed tackles forced per touch (.7), per SūmerSports.

His 8 carries went for just 24 yards, but he flashed pass-catching chops, turning his 2 targets into a pair of receptions and 44 receiving yards.

The clear handcuff to Kenneth Walker and a proven pass-catcher going back to his college days, Johnson is a bench stash with plenty of upside.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%