MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

This is a pretty weak waiver week - Germie Bernard is the only guy I’m really prioritizing.

As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

TPRR - Targets Per Route Run

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I write about players rostered in 40% or fewer of Yahoo leagues, AKA guys who are widely available.

Recommended FAAB - FAAB range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. This is just a starting point - you’ll need to tweak your FAAB bids based on roster needs and leaguemate tendencies.

Note: I went back and watched every play in every game for each player I wrote about below. While I’m a data nerd at heart, I’ve found that watching the film allows me to pick up on certain sequences, momentum, and honestly, vibes, that the data can’t capture. This helps to provide a complete picture of a player’s performance rather than simply leaning on box score or even advanced stats alone.

All data in this post comes from FantasyPoints Data unless otherwise noted.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
Germie Bernard (2% rostered)

Bernard is probably the one player I am truly excited to pick up this week.

In Week 5, he led the Steelers in targets (9), turning those opportunities into a 6-80 stat line. His 78.8% route share was a season/career-high, as was his 25.8% target share.

The increased usage was to be expected given Michael Pittman was placed on IR on Saturday and Roman Wilson suffered a finger injury just before halftime. Wilson is reportedly expected to miss two weeks, opening the door for Bernard to continue carving out a long-term role for himself.

The biggest thing for me is that the rookie appears to be earning the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Steelers beat reporter Nick Farabaugh posted on social media that last week, Rodgers quizzed Bernard extensively about the Colts’ coverages and tendencies and how to attack them, and Bernard passed with flying colors.

It showed up on the field, as Rodgers continued to look Bernard’s way. Bernard started off his day with a great catch in traffic for a 13-yard gain. Right before halftime, he had an awesome 21-yard chunk play, proving that he’s able to get open at multiple levels of the field. I’m pointing that out because a lot of Bernard’s targets so far have been lower aDOT stuff (he has a 7.35 aDOT on the season, per TruMedia).

In the 3rd quarter, Bernard made a clutch contested grab on 3rd and 10, putting the Steelers in position to convert on 4th and short. It was also great to see him get the ball on an end around, as it’s further evidence that Mike McCarthy is trying to get the ball in Bernard’s hands in creative ways.

Perhaps the best evidence of Rodgers’ growing trust in Bernard was in the 4th quarter, on a crucial 3rd and 2 near midfield. Rodgers wasn’t seeing anything open, but was able to find a wide open Bernard on a scramble drill while rolling left, resulting in a 25 yard gain and a fresh set of downs. Trust is everything in a Rodgers-led offense, and it’s nice to see that the rookie has the ability to improvise and get open on broken down plays.

Bernard did have a couple drops on the day, one of which would’ve been for a sizable gain on a free play in the first quarter, but I’m choosing to look at that as meat on the bone as those are plays he is perfectly capable of making.

I’m really excited about what Bernard can do with increased opportunities on a Steelers offense that ranks 5th in the league in pass rate over expectation (+6.9%).

Recommended FAAB: 7-14% (I’m very willing to go above this range - I want to be aggressive targeting rookies when they show us something early on. Bernard passes the eye test)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Kendrick Bourne (7% rostered)

With Marvin Harrison Jr. shipped off to the Texans, Kendrick Bourne is theoretically next in the pecking order as the Cardinals’ WR2.

I do, however, want to flag that when looking into Bourne’s Week 5 route share, he unexpectedly ran a route on a season-low 59.3% of dropbacks. Jalen Brooks, on the other hand, surged to a 57.4% route share (his previous high this season was 3.7%). If this trend continues and Bourne isn’t the clear WR2, I don’t really think he is worth rostering (he’s already a thin bet to begin with, but this is a weak week for waivers).

However, if you want to stash Bourne at the end of your bench to get one more week of data here, go for it. He led the team with 70 receiving yards, converting 5 of his 8 targets. I thought he looked solid and reliable, with the highlight of his day being a 23-yard 3rd down conversion on a post route just before halftime.

I’d consider adding him if you’re desperate for something at WR, understanding that there’s likely not a ton of upside here, especially if he continues to cede route share to Jalen Brooks.

Recommended FAAB: 3-6% (I’m fine going really low here and missing out on Bourne given the Brooks stuff)

WIDE RECEIVERS
Omar Cooper Jr. (3% rostered)

On an unexciting waiver wire week, I wanted to flag Cooper Jr. as. a potential free upside stash.

He was placed on IR after spraining his ankle in Week 1, meaning he’s theoretically eligible to return in Week 6. We haven’t heard any updates on his timeline, but I like the idea of getting ahead of the information here before your leaguemates are thinking about him. Even if he’s not back for this week, this is the kind of player you want stashed ahead of the potential breakout.

For what it’s worth, he looked fantastic on his sole NFL touch in Week 1, a sweet 30 yard reception on which he showed awesome YAC ability making two guys miss in the open field. There’s upside here for whenever the rookie gets back onto the field.

Recommended FAAB: 1-3%

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Dameon Pierce (3% rostered)

The definition of next man up. With Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, and Will Shipley all injured, Pierce figures to shoulder the load if Barkley is unable to go in Week 6.

I wouldn’t spend a ton here as Barkley could potentially return as soon as this week. Plus, I’m not sure how much gas Pierce has in the tank at this point in his career - he averaged just 1.3 yards per carry on Sunday while turning his 5 targets into -2 receiving yards.

Recommended FAAB: 5-9% (I’m okay missing out on Pierce as he’s pretty much a pure one-week volume play if Barkley is out)

RUNNING BACKS
Kendre Miller (8% rostered)

Disclaimer: this is not a sexy add. But I actually talked myself into it a little bit while writing this, as you’ll see below.

Miller led the Saints’ backfield in rush attempts with 10, and should at least be the primary option in this messy committee while Etienne remains out.

I gotta admit, Miller had a pretty sweet stretch in the 2nd quarter where he was handed the ball on 5 (FIVE!) straight plays, culminating in a 2 yard TD run. He honestly looked great on that sequence, ripping off gains of 9,7, and 6 yards back to back to back.

Also helping his outlook is that the Saints ran a league-low 43 plays in Week 5 (next lowest was the Steelers’ 54 plays, per TruMedia). They legit just could not stay on the field as Minnesota dominated time of possession.

Given that the Saints ranked 2nd in the league in plays per game heading into Week 5 (72.8), you can kind of ignore the overall output here and focus on Miller’s underlying usage. His role could prove to be usable on a normal week for this offense.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Pat Freiermuth (16% rostered)

With Michael Pittman on IR and Roman Wilson leaving the game just before halftime, Freiermuth saw a season-high 19.4% target share, turning his 7 targets into a 5-44-2 performance.

Honestly, this add feels a bit like chasing fantasy points and I’m not really inclined to add Muth unless I’m desperate for TE production. The main reasons he’s on here are

1) I needed a tight end to write about

2) he’s absolutely popping in the TPRR x WOPR chart

and 3) perhaps he continues to be more involved in the offense while Pittman and Wilson are out.

If you’re really in need of some sort of projectable volume at tight end, go for it mainly based on point number three.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

WEEK 6 STREAMERS

QUARTERBACKS

• Kirk Cousins (37% rostered) vs. Buffalo (4th-best matchup for QBs by FP/G allowed)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (DST)

• Kansas City (27% rostered) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (best matchup for DSTs by FP/G allowed)