🏈 Week 6 Opportunity Report + 10 Players To Add

Hey, Movers!

I’m continuing with the format I’ve used for the last two weeks, giving you all a peek into the data I’m looking at when identifying players to add off the waiver wire.

In addition to wTPRR, I like to look at Weighted Opportunity Rating and Expected Fantasy Points for utilization, and Yards Per Route Run for efficiency.

I also like to look at how a player’s Fantasy Points Scored differs from their Expected Fantasy Points so that we can identify potential undervalued / overvalued players to capitalize on for trades.

Finally, for running backs, volume and opportunity are king. I created a new RB metric this week, inspired by Josh Hermsmeyer’s Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) for wide receivers and tight ends. I call it Total Opportunity Score (TOPS), which combines a running back’s team target share with his team rush attempt share.

The TOPS formula weighs target share more heavily than rush attempt share, as research has shown that targets are worth more than twice the value of rush attempts when it comes to running back fantasy scoring. I’ll show you which running backs saw the biggest TOPS increase in Week 5, as well as which ones are deserving of an add off the waiver wire.

Below, I break down all the data we’re looking at and highlight the 10 Moves to make this week. Here we go:

Glossary (Data from FantasyPoints):

RTE % - Routes Run per Team Dropback

wTPRR - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating, created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a player’s air yards share and target share

TOPS - Total Opportunity Score, a metric I created that combines a running back’s target share and rush attempt share.

XFP - Expected Fantasy Points (PPR) based on usage (shown as expected positional finish, ex: RB11). A FantasyPoints metric.

FP - Actual Fantasy Points Scored (PPR) (shown as actual positional finish, ex: RB20).

YPRR - Yards Per Route Run

Rostership - % of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in

Recommended FAAB Range: FAAB Range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. Check out FAABLab’s interactive bid calculator, which shows your win probability for any bid amount - it’s awesome.

Wide Receivers

Add Ryan Flournoy - The 2024 6th-rounder popped off in the absence of CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin, but I wouldn’t go breaking the bank to add him. Lamb’s return to the lineup is approaching, and Turpin will steal looks when active, meaning Flournoy will have a murkier path to targets in the medium to long term. However, if Lamb and Turpin both miss Week 6, you could do worse than Flournoy, who finished 2nd in wTPRR on the week.

Add Kendrick Bourne - Similar to Flournoy, Bourne thrived in the absence of Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle. His viability as a fantasy starter is entirely short-term, as he’ll be buried in the pecking order when the ‘9ers get healthy - as soon as this week. While these WRs are both short-term options, I have Flournoy listed higher than Bourne as Ian Rapoport reported that both Pearsall and Jennings could be back for Week 6.

Tight Ends

Add Mason Taylor - The rookie led the team in target share (26.1%, season-high) in Week 5, logging a season-high 81.5% route participation, per FantasyPoints. Taylor’s targets have increased week over week (1,2,6,7,12!) - we may have a true breakout on our hands.

Add Theo Johnson - Jaxson Dart loves targeting his fellow rookie. Johnson has tied for the team lead in target share in both weeks Dart has started this season, scoring 3 TDs across those 2 games.

Add AJ Barner - Seattle’s Year 2 TE has 4 touchdowns in 5 games, and logged a season-high 20.6% target share in Week 5, finishing as the TE1 overall on the week.

Add Jake Tonges - If Kittle can’t return to the lineup this week, Tonges has proven to be a viable spot start in a pinch. However, Jennings and/or Pearsall returning to the lineup hurts his outlook, even if Kittle does sit.

Running Backs

Add Michael Carter - Savvy fantasy managers scooped Carter up last week, but he’s worth a big FAAB bid if still available in your league. He’ll continue to act as the lead back for Arizona with Trey Benson on injured reserve.

Add Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins - With Omarion Hampton headed to injured reserve, Vidal and Haskins (and potentially Nyheim Hines) will form some sort of committee in LA’s backfield. I prefer the upside of the Year 2 back in Vidal, who has more juice than Haskins.

Add Kendre Miller - Miller continues to eat into Kamara’s workload while trade rumors surrounding Kamara are only gaining more steam.

As always, thank you for reading! I hope you all have a great week.

-Stephen

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