🏈 Weeks 1-5 Opportunity Report + 8 Buys/Sells/Holds

What’s up, Movers?

Trying out something new here. This is a mid-week email using some of the same data I look at for waiver wire pickups, this time with an eye for trade opportunities. Rather than just looking at the most recent week’s data, the tables below cover WR/TE/RB opportunity and efficiency from Weeks 1 through 5.

If you find this writeup useful and enjoy it, please reply to this email and let me know! If enough people like it, maybe I’ll do more trade-focused emails in the future.

Without further ado…

Glossary (Data from FantasyPoints Data Suite):

RTE % - Routes Run per Team Dropback

wTPRR - (Weighted Targets Per Route Run) - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals. My favorite metric for analyzing pass-catcher opportunity.

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - created by Josh Hermsmeyer. Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share.

TOPS - (Total Opportunity Score) - a metric I created (inspired by Hermsmeyer’s WOPR) that combines a running back’s target share and rush attempt share. TOPS weighs target share more heavily than rush attempt share, as research has proven that targets are worth over 2x carries when it comes to fantasy production.

XFP/G - Expected Fantasy Points (PPR) per game based on usage (shown as expected positional finish, ex: RB11). A FantasyPoints metric.

FP/G - Actual Fantasy Points Scored (PPR) per game (shown as actual positional finish, ex: RB20).

YPRR - Yards Per Route Run

Wide Receivers (Weeks 1-5)

BUY Chris Olave - The efficiency just has not been there with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, and it’s possible that the production will never materialize on a bad offense with bad quarterback play. However, Olave’s role is just too good to pass up - he trails only Puka Nacua (12.4) in targets per game with 10.4. Olave is just the WR29 on the season, despite ranking as the WRfreaking2 in expected fantasy points.

BUY Brian Thomas Jr. - For whatever reason, BTJ has been unable to build on his amazing rookie season in Year 2. However, I’m going to continue believing that his talent will win out and that Jacksonville’s offense is just experiencing growing pains in Liam Coen’s system. Thomas Jr.’s role has been strong, but not other worldly - he ranks 25th among wide receivers in target share (21.9%) and 18th in air yards share (37.3%). However, he’s left plenty of fantasy points on the field with a plethora of uncharacteristic drops and missed opportunities. I’m looking to buy at a discount wherever possible - he’s just too talented to maintain this level of inefficiency all season.

BUY Tetairoa McMillan - Similarly to Olave, it’s possible that despite McMillan’s awesome role, he may not have the quarterback play to support him. Bryce Young has shown flashes at times, but has been otherwise pretty bad, ranking 27th out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (63.1). That being said, McMillan is the unquestioned alpha and is still a rookie, meaning he’s likely to improve as the season goes on. Players of that archetype are typically untradeable, but McMillan is just the WR30 in fantasy points per game, meaning your leaguemate may just hear out your offer.

HOLD A.J. Brown - I mean, what else are you going to do? Brown is coming off a 9.3 fantasy point performance, and has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments this season. If you trade him now, you’ll receive pennies on the dollar for a player who profiles as an elite fantasy asset when Philadelphia actually throws the ball. From Weeks 1-4, the Eagles ranked 2nd to last in Pass Rate Over Expectation (-4.9%), per FantasyPoints. In Week 5, Philly led all teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+22.2%), following reported frustration from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. If this is a sign of things to come and the Eagles resemble a more balanced offense moving forward, then we should see Brown bounce back in a big way. If you want to sell high on him then, fine, just don’t do it now when his value is at its lowest.

Tight Ends (Weeks 1-5)

BUY Brock Bowers - Normally, I wouldn’t write about Bowers as a trade target as I typically avoid discussing the “obvious” blue-chip fantasy assets that many managers would consider “untradeable”. However, people seem to be SO down on Bowers right now, who is not only banged up, but ranks as just the TE11 in fantasy points per game. Geno Smith has been awful as well, ranking 35th among 37 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (53.7). If you can stomach Bowers potentially missing more time with his injury, I’d be looking to capitalize on what will likely be your only opportunity to buy Bowers all season. His role is still awesome - he ranks 3rd at the position in target share (20.5%) - and his efficiency should improve when he isn’t playing through a knee injury. This is the most productive rookie tight end of all time we’re talking about, I still believe he will return elite production in Year 2.

SELL Travis Kelce - Kelce has been fine for fantasy, though there’s nothing special about his usage in Kansas City’s offense. He’s a sell coming off a season-high 19.1 fantasy point performance because Week 6 will be his last game before suspended WR Rashee Rice returns to the lineup. Rice is a target hog who finished 2nd among all WRs in targets per route run last season (0.35), and he makes a living in the middle of the field, where Kelce is currently earning his targets. Now 36 years old, Kelce’s path to targets will be extremely unclear with Rice back in the lineup and Xavier Worthy fully healthy. I’d cash out now before it’s too late.

Running Backs (Weeks 1-5)

BUY Chase Brown - Brown ranks 3rd among all running backs in rush attempt share (71%) and 6th in target share (14%). He’s a bellcow running back in an awesome role, stuck in a hapless offense sans Joe Burrow. While new Bengal Joe Flacco is nothing more than a game manager at this point in his career, I firmly believe he is a big step up from Jake Browning, who has made this offense unwatchable. PFF agrees, ranking Flacco 28th among 37 quarterbacks in passing grade (61.1), versus Jake Browning’s 50.1 passing grade (36th out of 37). If Joe Flacco can simply keep this offense on the field, Chase Brown stands to benefit in a big way.

SELL Tony Pollard - Tony Pollard leads all running backs in rush attempt share (73%) on the season, but is stuck on PFF’s 3rd-lowest graded offense (59.8). To make matters worse, he logged a season-low Total Opportunity Score in Week 5, as backfield mate Tyjae Spears returned from injured reserve to make his 2025 debut. Spears was eased in off his ankle injury, but is likely to continue eating into Pollard’s workload, especially in the passing game. In order to be fantasy viable on such a bad offense, Pollard needs to maintain a bellcow role, which appears to be in jeopardy following Spears’ return.

Thanks for reading! Reply to this email and let me know what you think of this format.

-Stephen

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