MOVES GLOSSARY

Hey, Movers!

Pretty weak week on the wire outside of Washington, but there are some interesting deeper stashes / dart throws, especially with the trade deadline coming up.

As always, here are some of the terms you need to know for today’s writeup:

TPRR - Targets Per Route Run

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I write about players rostered in 40% or fewer of Yahoo leagues, AKA guys who are widely available.

Recommended FAAB - FAAB range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. This is just a starting point - you’ll need to tweak your FAAB bids based on roster needs and leaguemate tendencies.

Note: I went back and watched every play in every game for each player I wrote about below. While I’m a data nerd at heart, I’ve found that watching the film allows me to pick up on certain sequences, momentum, and honestly, vibes, that the data can’t capture. This helps to provide a complete picture of a player’s performance rather than simply leaning on box score or even advanced stats alone.

All data in this post comes from TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVERS
A.D. Mitchell (11% rostered)

I couldn’t believe I was watching A.D. Mitchell out there on Sunday. He honestly looked elite in Week 8.

He started out the game with a nice 17-yard chunk play on a 1st quarter 3rd&10. Mitchell then made a fantastic grab along the sideline for 20 yards on 3rd&11 in the 2nd. Just a couple minutes later, Mitchell made another toe-tap sideline grab for 22 yards. On a 4th and 1 later in the 2nd, Mitchell brought in a beauty of a 12 yard TD grab in the back corner of the end zone.

It seriously felt like he was making play after play. Mitchell’s pièce de résistance was a 47-yard BOMB from Geno Smith that Mitchell was somehow able to come down with while his defender was all over him.

The result was a 9-7-142-1 stat line, and there was STILL meat on the bone here. Mitchell straight up dropped a 45-yard dime from Geno at the beginning of the 2nd quarter. He had to come back to the ball a liiittle bit, but it was absolutely catchable.

There are multiple pass-catchers in this offense competing for targets, but now that he’s healthy and clearly back to form, I want Mitchell on my fantasy rosters.

Recommended FAAB: 6-10%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Williams (25% rostered)

In his first full game following Terry McLaurin’s season-ending injury, Williams logged season/career-highs in route share (84.8%) and target share (20.7%), turning in a 7-5-54 stat line, per FantasyPoints.

He continued to look solid in Week 8, and his 30 yard downfield grab halfway through the 4th quarter was absolutely the highlight of his day. It was impressive that he was able to come down with that one after taking a pretty hard hit while securing the ball.

The rookie’s role is growing as is his chemistry with Jayden Daniels - he’s absolutely worth the add.

Recommended FAAB: 4-8%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Caleb Douglas (28% rostered)

Douglas continues to flash potential, but remains limited by an offense ranking dead last in dropback rate over expected (-9%), per FantasyLife.

Given that Malik Willis is spreading the ball around, Douglas is pretty big-play dependent on limited volume. However, he’s shown serious explosiveness and is the type of rookie I like stashing on my bench.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Ryan Flournoy (34% rostered)

Flournoy continues to see opportunities in Dallas’ offense (and has looked really good on them!), and teams are reportedly inquiring about George Pickens’ availability ahead of the trade deadline.

Pickens is playing on the franchise tag and the Cowboys are sitting at 3-5. It’s at least possible they deal him, in which case Flournoy’s fantasy value would absolutely skyrocket.

Recommended FAAB: 4-6%

WIDE RECEIVERS
Malachi Fields (4% rostered)

Alright, this one is for my sickos in the deepest of leagues. Hear me out.

Fields has been on my radar all year as he’s looked really good when given the opportunity - those opportunities just haven’t come all that frequently.

Before New York’s Week 8 bye, however, the rookie posted career/season-highs in receptions (4) and receiving yards (83) in Week 7. His 16.0% target share since J.J. McCarthy took over is 3rd on the team, just behind Isaiah Likely (17.3%).

He had an incredible 47-yard chunk play in the first quarter in which he got open near the sideline 15 yards downfield, shed a tackle while staying inbounds, and then picked up an extra 30 yards with his legs, literally dragging Kamari Lassiter along with him for the final 10.

In the third, he caught a beautiful ball from McCarthy on a corner route for 20 yards. On 3rd & 9 in the fourth, McCarthy connected with Fields for a clutch 14-yard conversion that showed nice chemistry between the two.

Long story short, Fields has flashed throughout the season and McCarthy has actually looked pretty solid himself through two games as a Giant. If you have the bench space over the next couple weeks and want an upside rookie to stash, you could do worse than taking a stab at Fields, who could benefit from a post-bye rookie bump.

Recommended FAAB: 1-2%

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACKS
Mike Washington (28% rostered)

With Ashton Jeanty struggling on the ground, Washington has been getting more involved each week, and he finally took over lead back duties in Week 8, out-carrying Ashton Jeanty 25 to 2.

Jeanty didn’t even hit the minimum 25% designed rush share to be included in the above chart. He was, however, still very much involved in the passing game, seeing a 16.0% target share. Despite getting so heavily out-carried in Week 8, I expect Jeanty to maintain a meaningful role in the offense, especially through the air.

I personally think we will see Washington struggle behind this o-line as Jeanty has, as the Raiders rank dead last in yards before contact per rush (0.29). However, I think his 3.3 yards per carry (25 carries for 83 yards) in Week 8 are a tad misleading, given several of his carries came in obvious run spots on the Raiders’ final drive attempting to salt the game away.

I thought Washington looked particularly quick on a 15-yard run at the beginning of the 3rd quarter. On that one, the Raiders’ line actually managed to open a massive lane through which he exploded for a nice chunk gain.

We don’t yet know if Washington is truly good or not or if he’ll be able to produce for fantasy behind this line, but we are wrong about these things all the time. Volume is king in fantasy, and it appears the rookie has taken over as Vegas’ lead ball carrier.

Recommended FAAB: 8-16%. This seems low to me. I’d be willing to go significantly above this range if you are in need of RB help (as most are). It’s pretty rare that we get access to this kind of potential volume off the waiver wire this deep into the season, especially when the player is a rookie with athletic upside.

RUNNING BACKS
Seth McGowan (31% rostered)

With the Colts reportedly now entertaining Jonathan Taylor trade talks, McGowan is a must-stash as he would immediately take over as Indy’s lead back were Taylor to be dealt.

This offense is already looking like a trainwreck (especially with Quenton Nelson now a Seahawks) and will be even worse sans Taylor, but the volume should be there for McGowan, who has shown to be a powerful between the tackles runner.

Recommended FAAB: 5-9%

RUNNING BACKS
Emmett Johnson (19% rostered)

Emmett Johnson has looked freaking electric on his touches throughout the season.

That was no different in Week 8, where he turned his lone carry into 15 yards and his 5 targets into 128 receiving yards and a TD.

He legit looked unstoppable out there. He had a 73 yard TD reception on which he got wide open on a wheel route 10 yards downfield and did the rest with his legs, juking out the last man standing on his way into the end zone.

Later in the second quarter, Johnson took a 3-yard dump off down the sideline for a 38 yard chunk gain.

His lone carry came in the 3rd, on which he continually made guys miss, turning what should’ve been a stuffed run or MAYBE a short gain into a 15-yard scamper.

Johnson then had a clutch play in the 4th quarter on a 3rd and 2 dumpoff where he had to make one man miss in order to get to the line to gain. And of course, that’s exactly what he did.

Johnson just looks different on the field. He remains one of the best handcuffs in fantasy, and he given what he’s done with his limited touches, I’m not sure how you can keep him off the field. There’s a chance he’s able to carve out some sort of weekly role for himself.

Recommended FAAB: 6-10%

RUNNING BACKS
Dylan Sampson (17% rostered)

In Week 8, Sampson caught 6 of 8 targets for 62 yards and took his lone carry for 7 yards.

It’s worth noting that 3 of his receptions came on back to back to back checkdowns on the Browns’ final garbage time drive down 21 points with under 2 minutes on the clock. So the numbers are a bit deceiving.

However, given that the Browns’ running game is pretty atrocious, it seems as though these checkdowns and high percentage passes to Sampson could continue. I’m interested in stashing him in PPR leagues with the hopes that he can be one of those PPR scam RBs from back in the day (these pass-catching specialist RBs aren’t as much of a thing anymore, sadly).

Recommended FAAB: 3-4%

RUNNING BACKS
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (26% rostered)

Bhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) is yet to practice this week. If he is unable to play in Week 9, Rodriguez would be in line for a spot start assuming he himself (hand) is able to suit up.

Recommended FAAB: 2-4%

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT ENDS
Terrance Ferguson (16% rostered)

Yesterday, Sean McVay said that it is more likely than not that they will open Ferguson’s practice window this week.

I want to continue stashing Ferguson wherever I can afford to and need TE help. With Davante Adams’ absence, there is serious opportunity for a pass-catcher to step up in LA, and Ferguson was praised as the Rams’ de facto WR3 all summer.

Recommended FAAB: 2-4%

WEEK 9 STREAMERS

QUARTERBACKS

• Malik Willis (21% rostered) vs. Lions (best matchup for QBs by FP/G allowed)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (DST)

• Saints (5% rostered) vs. Browns (5th-best matchup for DSTs)