🏈 Advanced Metrics: 9 Players To Add/Buy/Sell for Week 9

Hey, Movers!

Here are the goods for Week 9 - let’s get a win this week:

Glossary

wTPRR - (Weighted Targets Per Route Run) - Targets Per Route Run but with air yards layered in. A metric created by Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals. My favorite metric for analyzing pass-catcher opportunity.

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

PFF Grade - (Pro Football Focus Grade) - A play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in. I capped the players for this week’s writeup at 35% rostership, so guys like Troy Franklin are not covered below.

FAABLab Recommended Range - FAAB Range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool. Check out FAABLab’s interactive bid calculator, which shows your win probability for any bid amount - it’s fantastic. This is not an ad or anything, I just genuinely use FAABLab every week.

Wide Receivers

Add Jaylin Noel (9% rostered)

Week 8 PFF Grade: 83.3 (7th among 71 qualifying WRs)

For the second straight week, the rookie has looked good in his expanded role, turning 6 targets into a 5-63 stat line. Nico Collins could return from his concussion as soon as this week, but Noel’s primary competition in the slot, Christian Kirk, remains sidelined with a hamstring injury. Regardless, I think it’s possible that Noel could ice Kirk for the starting slot role if he continues to make the most of his increased opportunities. There are plenty of opportunities to go around in this offense, as the Texans rank 9th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+3.6%), per FantasyPoints.

FAABLab Recommended Range: 7-10%

Add Chimere Dike (8% rostered)

Week 8 PFF Grade: 76.1 (16th/71)

In Week 8, the rookie logged season-highs in route share (86%) and target share (21.1%), which tied for the team lead. He converted his 8 looks into a 7-93 stat line, and appears to be emerging among the Titans’ pass-catchers, especially with Tyler Lockett no longer on the roster. The 4th-rounder’s best comparable player per PlayerProfiler is Mike Wallace, and he fittingly boasts a 97th percentile 40-yard dash time (4.34).

FAABLab Recommended Range: 6-10%

Buy Emeka Egbuka

Week 8 PFF Grade: 53.2 (58th/71)

With Tampa Bay entering their bye week, a nice buy window has opened up for Egbuka, who has scored 6.5, 9.8, and 4.4 PPR points in his last 3 outings. His underlying usage has been awesome, averaging a 24.6% target share since Week 3. Egbuka’s been inefficient, but he’s been battling a hamstring injury and figures to be much closer to 100 percent coming out of the Bucs’ bye week. With Mike Evans out for “most of the season” and Chris Godwin struggling to get healthy, Tampa Bay will continue to lean on the talented rookie.

Sell Kayshon Boutte

Week 8 PFF Grade: 66.6 (37th/71)

Boutte has shown big-play ability, but his fantasy production is coming from insane efficiency rather than strong underlying usage. He has scored 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games, despite averaging just 4 targets per game during that stretch. Boutte has just a 12.6% target share on the season, and has logged only one performance over the 20% target share mark (20.8% in Week 8). If you’re betting on this being Boutte’s true breakout season and that his role will improve, I respect it. However, I’d personally be trying to cash in if you can now as his fantasy production thus far has been dependent on splash plays and touchdowns rather than reliable utilization.

Tight Ends

Add Colston Loveland (22% rostered)

Week 8 PFF Receiving Grade: 61.5 (18th/28)

I’ve been begging for the Colston Loveland breakout game, and we didn’t get it in Week 8. However, the 10th overall pick did log season/career-highs in snap share (80.6%) route share (75.6%), and believe it or not, fantasy points (just 6.8), in Cole Kmet’s absence. With Kmet week-to-week, Loveland could get another shot as Chicago’s featured tight end in Week 9, facing a Bengals defense that ranks as the best matchup in the league for fantasy tight ends, according to Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position Rankings. Given Loveland’s talent profile, I would not be surprised if he plays well and retains the starting job moving forward, even when Kmet returns to health. I’d be stashing Loveland this week before it’s too late.

FAABLab Recommended Range: 3-6%

Running Backs

Add Tyjae Spears (32% rostered)

Week 8 PFF Grade: 68.6, (18th/50)

For the second time in his four weeks since returning from injury, Spears out-snapped Tony Pollard in Week 8, 50.7% to 47.8%, per FantasyPoints. Spears was more efficient on his opportunities, averaging 6.6 yards per carry to Pollard’s 4.0. While I don’t expect Spears to fully take over this backfield, he’s carving out a nice role for himself, especially in the passing game (10.0% target share over the last 3 weeks).

FAABLab Recommended Range: 11-20%

Add Brashard Smith (17% rostered)

Isiah Pacheco is reportedly week-to-week with an MCL Sprain, meaning the rookie pass-catching specialist could see more opportunities on an offense that leads the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+10.3%), per FantasyPoints. Among 39 qualifying running backs this season, Smith ranks 1st in Yards Per Route Run (2.77) and 2nd in PFF Receiving Grade (88.0), behind only Christian McCaffrey. Additionally, while Kareem Hunt has been serviceable, he lacks explosiveness at this point in his career, ranking 41st among 51 qualifiers in Breakaway Percentage (13.5%), per PFF. Smith has the juice this backfield has been lacking, and could finally have a bigger opportunity to put it on display.

FAABLab Recommended Range: 6-10%

Add Bam Knight (21% rostered)

Michael Carter was released and then signed to Arizona’s practice squad, meaning Knight is likely looking at a 1A role at a minimum in the Cardinals’ backfield this week. He gets a Cowboys team that ranks as the 3rd-best matchup for fantasy running backs according to Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position rankings. Trey Benson will eventually return, but Knight is a fine spot-start RB rental this week if you need it.

FAABLab Recommended Range: 8-16%

Buy Jaylen Warren

Week 8 PFF Grade: 62.8, (24th/50)

Warren scored just 9.8 fantasy points this week, but he has reclaimed the featured running back role in Pittsbugh’s offense, handling 72.2% of the Steelers’ rushing attempts while also earning an 8.3% target share. On the season, Warren is 8th among all running backs in rush attempt share (62.4%) and 10th in target share (11.7%), yet ranks as just the RB18 in fantasy points per game (13.6). Per PFF’s Strength Of Schedule metric, Pittsburgh has the most favorable schedule for fantasy running backs over the next six weeks, so I’d be buying low on him coming off his underwhelming Week 8 performance.

Thanks for reading! If you have any feedback on this format/content, I’d love to hear it - just reply to this email. Good luck in Week 9!

-Stephen

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