🏈 TPRR, WOPR, and 5 Players To Add for Week 10

Glossary

TPRR - Targets Per Route Run

WOPR - (Weighted Opportunity Rating) - Calculated by combining a pass-catcher’s air yards share and target share. A metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer.

PFF Grade - (Pro Football Focus Grade) - A play-by-play evaluation metric that quantifies how well the player performed individually on each snap, independent of team results or box score stats.

Rostership % - Percentage of Yahoo leagues player is rostered in.

Recommended FAAB - FAAB range recommendation based on FAABLab, which is an awesome crowd-sourced FAAB estimation tool.

Add Alec Pierce (27% rostered)

PFF Week 9 Receiving Grade: 72.6 (18th out of 78 qualifying WRs)

For the second time in the last three weeks, Alec Pierce led the Colts in target share (24.0%) and 1st read share (33.3%), which measures percentage of the team’s 1st read and designed targets, turning his career-high 13 (!) targets into a 6-115 stat line, per FantasyPoints.

According to Next Gen Stats, Pierce ranks 8th among 74 qualifying receivers this season in deep (20+ air yards) receiving yards with 178.

While I was slow to buy in to Pierce being a consistent fantasy contributor given his “deep threat” label, he is averaging 8 targets per game over the last month and has logged at least 69 receiving yards in each of his last three games. He has developed into a more well-rounded receiver and has proven an ability to earn targets consistently, rather than just a couple deep shot plays per game.

The Colts are 7th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+12.6%), so Pierce should continue to see plenty of opportunities on an offense that leads the league in total fantasy points per game (64.3), per FantasyPoints.

Recommended FAAB: 10-14%

Add Parker Washington (18% rostered)

PFF Week 9 Receiving Grade: 80.9 (8th/78)

With Travis Hunter on I.R. (knee), Parker Washington saw the biggest bump among Jacksonville’s pass-catchers, leading the team in route share (79.5%), target share (26.5%), and 1st Read share (34.6%), per FantasyPoints.

Obviously, Washington’s long-term fantasy outlook took a big hit today when the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers. However, with Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with a low grade high-ankle sprain and Meyers facing a quick turnaround to get ready for Week 10 in a new offense, Washington could be fantasy viable for another week.

Admittedly, though, it’s a tough matchup against Houston, the 3rd-worst matchup for fantasy wide receivers per Establish The Run’s Defense vs. Position metric, so I wouldn’t spend up here.

Recommended FAAB: 5-7%

Add Colston Loveland (24% rostered)

PFF Week 9 Receiving Grade: 84.4 (6th/44)

Last week, I listed Loveland as my only tight end add, noting “given Loveland’s talent profile, I would not be surprised if he plays well (in Week 9) and retains the starting job moving forward, even when Kmet returns to health. I’d be stashing Loveland this week before it’s too late.”

While it’s too late to stash Loveland for cheap, he’s worth spending up for on the waiver wire if you are in need of tight end help. The 10th overall pick logged season/career-highs in route share (79.5%) and target share (18.9%), tying for the team lead in 1st read share (21.1%) on his way to a 29.8 point, TE2 overall performance, per FantasyPoints.

Ben Johnson utilized the rookie creatively, as Loveland recorded at least one reception from every alignment (wide, slot, tight, and backfield), per Next Gen Stats.

Cole Kmet left the game with a concussion, but regardless of his status moving forward, the toothpaste is out of the tube with Loveland. I’d expect him to earn a larger role in Chicago’s offense following his Week 9 breakout.

Recommended FAAB: 16-24%

Add Luke Musgrave (1% rostered)

PFF Week 9 Receiving Grade: 67.8 (22nd/44)

Tucker Kraft is, unfortunately, out for the season (torn ACL), opening the door for Luke Musgrave to take on Green Bay’s starting tight end role. While Musgrave is nowhere near the talent Kraft is, he did log a 3-3-34 stat line in just one quarter after Kraft went down. The Packers’ offense ranks 9th in total fantasy points per game (57.4), making Musgrave a valuable add for TE-needy fantasy rosters.

Recommended FAAB: 7-13%

Add Devin Singletary (6% rostered)

PFF Week 9 Grade: 71.8 (10th/44)

While Tyrone Tracy was expected to take on most of Cam Skattebo’s work, it was Devin Singletary that out-snapped him 55.4% to 44.6% and took on a larger share of the rush attempts (38.1% to 23.8%), per FantasyPoints. Tracy predictably earned a larger target share than Singletary (12.1% to 6.1%), but Singletary had 2 green zone touches (inside opponent’s 10-yard line) to Tracy’s 0, per Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals.

It’s a gross add, I know, but the green zone usage could be indicative of Singletary taking on Skattebo’s valuable red zone role.

Recommended FAAB: 9-13%